Ripple's XRP token continued its strong downward trend last week, hovering at its lowest level since November 2024. The asset has dropped in five consecutive weeks and is down 70% from its highest point last year. This decline persists despite positive developments within the Ripple ecosystem, such as the Ripple USD stablecoin achieving $1.7 billion in assets and a 90% jump in 30-day transfer volume to $4.8 billion.

XRP ETF Inflows Surge

XRP ETFs have added $13 million in assets in June following an addition of $132 million in May, marking the third consecutive month of inflows. The net cumulative figure has jumped to $1.44 billion. The Bitwise XRP ETF leads with $296 million, while Canary's XRPC holds $254 million. These inflows present a sharp contrast to Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have shed over $3 billion and $1 billion respectively this year.

Ripple Labs Valuation Diverges

A key risk for XRP is the disconnect between the token and Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs grew its valuation to $50 billion in March after implementing a $750 million buyback, having previously achieved a $40 billion valuation after raising cash from Citadel. It remains unclear whether acquisitions like GTreasury and Hidden Road have driven a corresponding surge in network activity.

Technical Indicators Signal Further Downside

Technical analysis suggests XRP has further downside potential. The token is nearing a death cross pattern on the weekly chart as the spread between the 50-week and 200-week moving averages narrows. Additionally, a double-top pattern at $3.3981 with a neckline at $1.5723 implies a potential drop to the psychological level of $1.00. If this support fails, XRP may fall to $0.50, matching its lowest point in November 2024.

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since October 2025, raising questions about whether a recent technical buy signal can produce a sustained rally. Whale activity has declined significantly, with large holders offloading roughly 60 million tokens over the past week, contradicting the bullish technical setup.

Santiment data indicates that "XRP sentiment has quietly fallen off a cliff." The analytics firm notes that price weakness has contributed to this decline, alongside growing fatigue over the lack of a major catalyst despite years of anticipation regarding Ripple’s legal clarity and institutional adoption narratives. However, Santiment highlights that some of XRP's strongest rebounds have historically occurred when crowd interest was at its weakest. The firm also points to continued progress beneath the surface, noting that development activity, XRP Ledger usage, tokenization initiatives, and institutional products continue to advance even as retail enthusiasm fades.

Technical Signals and Whale Distribution

Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez said the TD Sequential indicator has printed a buy signal for XRP on the three-day chart. Historically, this indicator anticipates a one to four candlestick rebound, offering short-term relief from compression rather than a full trend reversal. Martinez cautioned that the signal may point more toward temporary relief than the start of a sustained trend reversal.

On-chain data suggests large holders are not yet positioning aggressively for a rally. Large-scale whale activity on the XRP network has declined by 57.3%. Instead of absorbing circulating supply to support a bullish breakout, active whales have distributed roughly 60 million XRP over the past week. Martinez argues that a more attractive accumulation zone sits near $0.90, aligning with a multi-year rising trendline that has acted as support for roughly eight years.

Market Odds and Technical Levels

Prediction markets reflect the bearish sentiment. Polymarket data gives a 47% probability that XRP falls below $1 by the end of June. The market assigns more than a 50% chance of XRP losing the dollar level entirely this month, with a further 7% chance prices drop below $0.80. Upside probabilities remain low, with only 9% odds for $1.40 and near-zero probability for anything above $1.60.

Technically, XRP sits at the apex of a descending triangle on the 2-hour chart with an imminent breakout decision approaching. Triple RSI bull divergence has fired at the lows, and the MACD crossed bullish with the histogram narrowing, suggesting momentum is building beneath the compressed price structure. A break above $1.1246 confirms a triangle breakout targeting $1.1702, then $1.2071, then $1.2440. Conversely, losing $1.0509 triggers a measured breakdown toward $0.95 to $0.90, aligning directly with the identified accumulation opportunity.