XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since October 2025, raising questions about whether a recent technical buy signal can produce a sustained rally. Whale activity has declined significantly, with large holders offloading roughly 60 million tokens over the past week, contradicting the bullish technical setup.

Santiment data indicates that "XRP sentiment has quietly fallen off a cliff." The analytics firm notes that price weakness has contributed to this decline, alongside growing fatigue over the lack of a major catalyst despite years of anticipation regarding Ripple’s legal clarity and institutional adoption narratives. However, Santiment highlights that some of XRP's strongest rebounds have historically occurred when crowd interest was at its weakest. The firm also points to continued progress beneath the surface, noting that development activity, XRP Ledger usage, tokenization initiatives, and institutional products continue to advance even as retail enthusiasm fades.

Technical Signals and Whale Distribution

Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez said the TD Sequential indicator has printed a buy signal for XRP on the three-day chart. Historically, this indicator anticipates a one to four candlestick rebound, offering short-term relief from compression rather than a full trend reversal. Martinez cautioned that the signal may point more toward temporary relief than the start of a sustained trend reversal.

On-chain data suggests large holders are not yet positioning aggressively for a rally. Large-scale whale activity on the XRP network has declined by 57.3%. Instead of absorbing circulating supply to support a bullish breakout, active whales have distributed roughly 60 million XRP over the past week. Martinez argues that a more attractive accumulation zone sits near $0.90, aligning with a multi-year rising trendline that has acted as support for roughly eight years.

Market Odds and Technical Levels

Prediction markets reflect the bearish sentiment. Polymarket data gives a 47% probability that XRP falls below $1 by the end of June. The market assigns more than a 50% chance of XRP losing the dollar level entirely this month, with a further 7% chance prices drop below $0.80. Upside probabilities remain low, with only 9% odds for $1.40 and near-zero probability for anything above $1.60.

Technically, XRP sits at the apex of a descending triangle on the 2-hour chart with an imminent breakout decision approaching. Triple RSI bull divergence has fired at the lows, and the MACD crossed bullish with the histogram narrowing, suggesting momentum is building beneath the compressed price structure. A break above $1.1246 confirms a triangle breakout targeting $1.1702, then $1.2071, then $1.2440. Conversely, losing $1.0509 triggers a measured breakdown toward $0.95 to $0.90, aligning directly with the identified accumulation opportunity.