Bitcoin extended gains to $63,183, alongside Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin, as market analysts debated whether a technical "death cross" signal indicates the final stages of the current bear market. This recovery follows a 32% decline in the first half of 2026, where Bitcoin fell from approximately $87,000 to around $58,500, driven by significant capital rotation into artificial intelligence equities and persistent high interest rates. The recent price action suggests a potential shift in sentiment, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $84.9 million on Wednesday, contrasting with inflows of $70.5 million into spot Ethereum ETFs.

Market Performance and Liquidations

The broader cryptocurrency market showed signs of recovery, with major assets posting gains. In the past 24 hours, 55,831 traders were liquidated for a total of $148.86 million. Top gainers during this period included Arbitrum, Celestia, and Canton. Despite the recent uptick, Bitcoin remains below its 20-week EMA of $71,565 and 50-week EMA of $80,642, levels that previously acted as resistance during the H1 selloff.

Technical Analysis and Trader Sentiment

Bitcoin is flashing a weekly death cross, where the 20-week EMA crossed below the 50-week EMA. However, traders such as Jelle and Titan argue that this signal has historically appeared late in bear markets rather than at the beginning, suggesting the downturn may be nearing its end. Analyst AshCrypto noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-week moving average, a key long-term support level, and is holding above $60,000 after bouncing from $57,000. Maintaining this level could pave the way for a historically strong rally in July and August.

Institutional Flows and Developments

While spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows, the launch of Robinhood's blockchain—touted as ideal for real-world assets and meme coins—provided a tailwind for market sentiment. Exchange supplies for Bitcoin and Ethereum have hit historic lows, a metric some analysts view as bullish. Historical context remains a focus for investors, as successive negative returns in the first two quarters have previously preceded extended bear markets in 2018 and 2022.

Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange supplies have fallen to multi-year lows, signaling long-term holder conviction despite recent market volatility. Data from Santiment indicates Bitcoin's exchange supply has dropped to its lowest level since 2017, while Ethereum's balance is near its lowest point since 2015. This trend suggests fewer coins are available for sale on centralized exchanges, reducing the risk of large-scale selloffs. Investors moving assets into self-custody typically reflects a long-term holding strategy rather than an intent to trade.

While exchange supplies are tightening, demand dynamics show a mixed picture. CryptoQuant data reveals Bitcoin demand has staged one of its strongest recoveries this year, with the 30-day cumulative demand metric improving from nearly -500,000 BTC to roughly -75,000 BTC. However, this rebound is primarily driven by derivatives markets, where futures demand shifted from around -295,000 BTC to slightly positive territory. Spot demand remains weak at approximately -78,000 BTC, indicating long-term buyers have not yet returned in force.

Ethereum displays a similar divide in investor sentiment. During a recent panic selloff, nearly 100,000 unique addresses deposited ETH to Binance as prices tested the $1,500 level. Simultaneously, withdrawals increased, suggesting some investors capitulated while others accumulated the dip. Polymarket data reflects this uncertainty, with traders assigning a 75% probability that ETH reaches $2,000 during 2026 and a 68% chance of another decline to $1,500 before then. The probability of Ethereum revisiting $1,500 has risen sharply, while expectations for a deeper drop toward $1,250 have eased, highlighting the $1,500 region as a key battleground between buyers and sellers.

Key Metrics

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,700, while Ethereum is near $1,740.