Pseudonymous crypto analyst DonAlt has outlined critical technical levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum ahead of their monthly closes, signaling that both assets face decisive moments that could define near-term market direction. In a livestream podcast on July 28, DonAlt emphasized that Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $60,000 is essential for maintaining its current structure, while Ethereum is displaying its strongest relative performance against Bitcoin in months.

The stakes for Bitcoin are high as it remains at a pivotal support level. DonAlt stated that Bitcoin needs to move decisively away from the $60,000 region and reclaim $65,000 to improve its technical outlook. While the asset has managed to hold the zone, he warned that repeated tests weaken support and increase the risk of a breakdown. A monthly close around $60,000 to $61,000 would be considered a bearish development, potentially prompting him to reduce positions accumulated near $58,000. Conversely, a close near current levels would confirm support but lack the momentum to inspire confidence. A move toward $69,000 or $70,000 before the monthly close would signal a stronger rebound and improve the bullish case.

Key Technical Levels for Bitcoin

If Bitcoin loses the $60,000 region, DonAlt sees around $45,000 as the most logical downside target. He described that level as an extreme valuation zone, noting that bearish targets materially below it would be overly aggressive.

Ethereum Shows Relative Strength

Ethereum stood out as the most attractive major crypto asset in DonAlt’s analysis due to its relative strength against Bitcoin for the first time in an extended period. A sustained move above $2,000 would improve Ethereum’s short-term structure, while a breakout above $2,500 could potentially open the door to a rapid return toward its previous all-time high.

DonAlt acknowledged his historical bias toward Ethereum but noted that the improving ETH-BTC chart and widespread investor skepticism create a favorable setup. He argued that once Ethereum begins gaining momentum, sidelined investors may rush to regain exposure, accelerating the move. Meanwhile, Solana continues to underperform, with DonAlt identifying the $35 to $40 region as a potential buying zone if the broader market breaks down.

Charles Schwab Head of Crypto Research Jim Feroli has estimated Bitcoin's fair value at $95,000, citing the production costs of the least-efficient miners as a key valuation anchor. Speaking with CoinDesk on Tuesday, Feroli noted that while the asset typically faces seasonal weakness during the summer, it could benefit from a year-end rally as risk appetite improves. The stakes for investors are high, as Feroli suggests that relatively modest inflows could drive significant price gains given Bitcoin's supply-constrained nature, particularly if regulatory clarity improves and institutional adoption accelerates.

Feroli based his $95,000 valuation on the marginal cost of production, contrasting it with efficient miners who currently produce Bitcoin at a rough price of $60,000. He emphasized that the asset scaled quickly from $60,000 to $83,000 earlier this year, demonstrating its sensitivity to flow dynamics. "It does not take a lot of flow to move the needle on Bitcoin," Feroli said, though he remained uncertain about the timeline, predicting prices could reach fair value in six months or potentially sooner.

Regulatory Catalysts and Monetary Policy

Beyond supply-side dynamics, Feroli identified the CLARITY Act as crypto's biggest fundamental catalyst. Contrary to market expectations that legislation may already be reflected in prices, Schwab's research suggests the bill remains largely unpriced. The firm's analysis found that changes in the probability of the legislation passing explain only about 4% of Bitcoin's daily price movements. If Congress approves the bill before the August recess, Feroli believes it could revive the institutional adoption narrative that helped lift Bitcoin roughly 25% following several high-profile ETF launches earlier this year.

"If it were to pass in the next couple weeks, we think that is really serving as a legislative call option," Feroli stated. This potential legislative boost stands in contrast to near-term monetary policy risks. Markets remain focused on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with investors assessing the risk of additional monetary tightening. While a rate hike would likely pressure crypto prices in the short term, Feroli expects policymakers to maintain a hawkish tone regardless of the decision.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between efficient and inefficient miner costs provides a clear valuation floor and ceiling. Efficient miners operating at $60,000 suggest strong profitability at current levels, while the $95,000 fair value represents the breakeven point for less efficient producers. This spread implies significant upside potential if demand increases, even modestly.

The limited pricing of the CLARITY Act (4%) relative to the potential upside ($95,000 target) suggests that regulatory clarity remains an underappreciated driver. Feroli's view that the bill acts as a "legislative call option" highlights the asymmetric risk-reward profile for investors ahead of the August recess.