Anthony Pompliano asserts that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) does not require the passage of the CLARITY Act to reach new all-time highs, arguing that the asset’s trajectory is driven by fundamentals rather than legislative clarity. Speaking on his podcast on Tuesday, Pompliano stated that even if the bill fails, Bitcoin will still achieve record prices because it is already widely held by hundreds of millions globally and is not classified as a security. The stakes for investors lie in understanding that regulatory debates are shifting focus from asset classification to control over stablecoin yields.

Pompliano acknowledged that passing the CLARITY Act would accelerate timelines by generating enthusiasm among Wall Street and politicians, but he maintained that Bitcoin’s value proposition remains intact regardless. He argued that the current political struggle is not about whether crypto needs regulation, but about who profits from stablecoins. Both banks and crypto firms present legitimate arguments: banks demand equal rules for bank-like products, while crypto firms accuse banks of protecting their deposit business after years of exclusion.

Wall Street Endorsements vs. Crypto Skepticism

Despite Pompliano’s stance, major financial institutions are publicly backing the CLARITY Act. BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), and SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI) have urged Congress to pass the bill. BlackRock’s Samara Cohen called it an important step toward a regulatory framework that puts investors first. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted the bill is imperfect but creates a level playing field for market stability.

JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) remains a notable holdout, advocating for tighter restrictions on stablecoin yields that crypto firms argue would weaken the legislation. Pompliano warned that if the bill fails, companies like Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) will build offshore, allowing US consumers to access products through international or unregulated channels. He criticized the delay as an "insider game" that suffers consumers.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between institutional support and crypto-native skepticism highlights a structural split in how different market participants view regulatory risk. While traditional finance firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs see the CLARITY Act as essential for market stability and investor protection, figures like Pompliano view it as secondary to Bitcoin’s organic adoption. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price action may remain decoupled from immediate legislative outcomes, relying instead on global holding patterns and decentralized utility rather than US regulatory approval.

The Senate is not expected to take up the bill immediately. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is prioritizing nominations and a Russia sanctions package ahead of the August 8 recess deadline, delaying any potential vote on the CLARITY Act.

Bitcoin spot trading volume is on track for its weakest month since November 2023, reflecting deep market caution ahead of a critical Federal Reserve policy decision. Average daily spot volume across tracked exchanges reached $2.2 billion in July, while the seven-day average stood at $2.1 billion, down 4% from the prior week, according to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde. This liquidity drought coincides with markets pricing in a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed’s Wednesday announcement.

The subdued activity extends to derivatives markets, where CME bitcoin open interest remained near 2023 lows. Funding rates stayed between 5% and 7% throughout the week, a setup that K33 noted portrays no conviction in either direction among traders. The lack of directional clarity underscores the market’s hesitation to position heavily before the central bank’s move.

Market Scenarios and Analyst Views

Macro analyst Alex Krüger warned on X that a rate hike would "have serious legs" given how little of it is currently priced in. He suggested that if the Fed hikes, investors should short gold and silver, arguing the absence of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could lead markets to fear a new hiking cycle rather than a standalone move. Conversely, if the Fed holds rates steady, Krüger indicated that higher-beta assets, including previously crowded AI trades, could reverse higher, specifically flagging memory stocks as a potential play.

Inside the Fed Debate

The path to Wednesday’s decision remains uncertain, with Warsh adopting a no-guidance approach that leaves markets to speculate. At the last meeting, Warsh’s 18 colleagues split evenly on whether to raise rates this year. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both signaled support for higher rates, leading economists to expect at least one dissent regardless of the outcome.

However, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha told Reuters that the case for a hike has weakened after consumer prices slowed to 3.5% year over year in June from 4.2% in May. He argued it is difficult for the Fed to justify raising rates immediately after a stronger inflation report. Despite this, Renaissance Macro Research head of economics Neil Dutta made the case for a surprise hike, stating, "It’s better to do a little now instead of a lot later."

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between cooling inflation data (3.5% YoY) and hawkish signals from regional Fed presidents highlights a fractured policy consensus. With funding rates elevated at 5-7% but open interest low, the market appears trapped in a wait-and-see mode, unwilling to commit capital until the direction of monetary policy is clarified.