Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000 following news of a peace deal, yet the cryptocurrency's long-term downturn may be driven more by time than price, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen. In a June 14 market update, Cowen compared the current cycle to prior midterm-year bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022, which historically lasted between 50 and 60 weeks from peak to trough. While the current downturn is roughly 35 weeks old, Cowen indicates the market may still require additional time before a definitive bottom forms.

Time-Based Capitulation

Cowen emphasized that "time-based capitulation is actually more important than price-based capitulation." Over the past month, BTC prices plunged around 16%, while the past year saw a 37% drop. The analyst contrasted this with a "price-based capitulation" scenario, where a sharp selloff rapidly resets on-chain indicators and accelerates the bottoming process. He pointed to the 2020 COVID-19 crash as a rare example of price-based capitulation, where Bitcoin's rapid decline pushed key on-chain metrics to extreme lows, allowing the market to bottom sooner than a typical time-based cycle would suggest.

Market Outlook and Scenarios

Cowen predicts a similar outcome to the 2020 crash could occur in 2026 if Bitcoin experiences a significant selloff that fully resets valuation indicators. "If Bitcoin were to absolutely nuke into June and go down another $20,000, then I don't know that it would make sense to stay bearish into October," Cowen said. Without such a move, he expects the market to continue following a historical midterm-year pattern that could see Bitcoin find a temporary low, rally during the summer and potentially revisit lower levels later in the year. Cowen also highlighted Bitcoin's supply-in-profit-and-loss metric, noting that prior cycle lows typically arrived one to four months after the indicator crossed into bearish territory.

Binance co-founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao stated on Sunday that the anticipated Bitcoin super cycle may be delayed, though he remains confident it will eventually arrive. Zhao, speaking in a clip from a recent interview with CoinDesk shared on X, acknowledged the current market downturn as a "cryptocurrency winter" but emphasized that the crypto sector continues to grow. He admitted he cannot predict the future with precision, playfully conceding that his previous forecast for a 2026 super cycle might be late.

Bitcoin Advocates Maintain Bullish Stance

Despite the short-term volatility, prominent industry figures continue to support the leading cryptocurrency. Coinbase Global Inc. CEO Brian Armstrong echoed this optimism, reiterating that he is "bullish as ever" on Bitcoin. Armstrong projected that the price of Bitcoin will be "much higher" by 2030, describing it as the new digital gold and a key part of the future economy. He shared these views during a recent appearance on the Moonshots with Peter Diamandis podcast.

Market Performance and Geopolitical Impact

These positive predictions preceded a sharp uptick in the cryptocurrency market late Sunday. The surge followed geopolitical developments after President Donald Trump confirmed that a peace deal with Iran is "complete" and authorized the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was exchanging hands at $65,737.46, up 2.15% in the last 24 hours. The following table summarizes the recent performance metrics:

Zhao remains a longstanding Bitcoin bull, repeatedly declaring that the leading cryptocurrency would never die. While his personal portfolio is heavily weighted toward BNB, his public comments continue to reinforce a long-term belief in the asset class's resilience and growth potential.