Bitcoin may be approaching one of its most appealing long-term buying windows, according to 21Shares, which maintains a base-case target of $100,000 by year-end. The firm attributes the current price decline primarily to macroeconomic headwinds rather than deterioration in the asset's fundamentals. Strive Asset Management CEO Matt Cole also projected at BTC Prague that Bitcoin is likely bottoming around its 200-week moving average, setting a target range of $80,000 to $120,000 by the end of the year. He emphasized that trading near this historical average presents an optimal window for bulls to take maximum risk.

Four Reasons for Accumulation

21Shares outlined four key reasons supporting the accumulation thesis in a report released on July 8. First, Bitcoin has entered the same post-peak time window where each of the previous three market cycles found a bottom, roughly one year after the cycle high and about two-and-a-half years after the halving. Historically, investors buying during this period generated average returns of around 130% by the following halving.

Second, on-chain valuation metrics resemble prior cycle lows. The median Bitcoin holder is at breakeven for the first time this cycle, with selling pressure largely coming from recent buyers while long-term holders have continued accumulating. Third, downside risk appears more limited than in previous bear markets because Bitcoin's realized price now sits much closer to market highs, reducing the amount of excess valuation that typically unwinds during prolonged downturns.

Finally, Bitcoin continues to hold above key long-term technical support, including its 200-week moving average and realized price. The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are converging, flashing a crossover pattern previously seen only near major cycle bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022.

Price Targets and Market Sentiment

Both firms provided specific scenarios for Bitcoin's trajectory. 21Shares posits that a weekly close below $58,000 could open the door to the $50,000-$55,000 range near Bitcoin's realized price. Cole outlined three scenarios: a bear case placing the asset between current levels and $40,000, a base case of $80,000 to $120,000, and a positive scenario pushing it to $100,000 or all-time highs.

Strategic Accumulation and Industry Outlook

Regarding Strategy Inc.'s sale of 32 Bitcoin in May, Cole revealed Strive purchased the exact same amount that week, describing the move as partially deliberate. He pushed back on narratives interpreting the sale as bearish, arguing such fears would "age really poorly." Strive holds nearly 20,000 Bitcoin and maintains 18 months of cash and marketable securities, positioning the firm to withstand a price drop to $40,000 through the end of 2027 without selling coins.

Cole expressed a bearish outlook on all crypto assets except Bitcoin, citing Bitmine Immersion Technologies receiving a lower cost of capital than Strive despite being backed by Ethereum as evidence of mispriced risk. He argued that Ethereum's underperformance of Bitcoin by 15% annually since staking launched in 2020 invalidates the staking yield thesis. Looking ahead, Cole forecasts digital credit—Bitcoin-backed yield instruments like Strive's SATA and STRC—could grow into a multi-trillion dollar asset class by 2030.

Bitcoin has fallen behind artificial intelligence stocks in terms of sentiment as capital rotates into the semiconductor sector, according to macro analyst Lyn Alden. In an interview with Natalie Brunell on July 7, Alden noted that memory-chip names have become the "fastest horse in the race," pushing investors away from assets such as Bitcoin and gold. This shift coincided with free cash flow compression among major hyperscalers ramping up AI spending. Alden argued that "there’s nothing coming to save Bitcoin" and that the asset must survive on its own merits, though it is currently near the bottom of its historical valuation range.

Bitcoin Price Performance

Over the past month, Bitcoin has declined approximately 3%, slipping to around $60,000. This drop follows a peak near $124,000 in late 2025. The current cycle has been defined more by corporate adoption rather than retail participation, with fewer small holders moving Bitcoin into self-custody compared to previous cycles. Additionally, stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets have failed to generate durable demand outside of Bitcoin.

Market Outlook and Strategy Inc.

Alden commented on Strategy Inc., stating the company acted reasonably after volatility impacted its preferred stock product. However, she advised caution regarding how the company markets yield products tied to Bitcoin, citing tail risks during sharp price declines. Looking ahead, Alden does not anticipate a massive liquidity expansion in the near term, only a gradual increase in money supply. In her base case, Bitcoin is unlikely to reclaim new all-time highs this year, but she expects the asset to move back into fresh six-figure territory over the next couple of years if it continues its long-term adoption path.