Strategy Inc founder Michael Saylor stated on Wednesday that Bitcoin has no spam problem, highlighting a fee rate of 1 satoshi per virtual byte and an average transaction fee of $0.30 for instant settlements during periods of low congestion. Saylor emphasized that the free market has resolved Bitcoin’s blockspace challenges, allowing anyone to move any amount globally with immediate processing for approximately $0.30. One satoshi is the smallest unit of Bitcoin, equal to 0.00000001 BTC, which amounted to $0.00062 at the time of writing. Lightning transactions also include a variable fee component, shown to be 0.0004% of the total amount transferred in the given scenario.

Critics countered that Bitcoin’s low fees are a result of low demand rather than efficient blockspace management. A user named "Udi #BIP-110" argued that nobody is using the chain for any use case. The number of unconfirmed transactions in the Bitcoin mempool has dropped sharply over the past year, contrasting with the severe congestion seen in May 2023, which was driven by a surge in data-heavy protocols like Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens.

Fred Krueger, a former Wall Street trader and Bitcoin enthusiast, warned that the market forces Saylor mentioned would not address quantum computing risks to Bitcoin. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $62,495.41, up 30.08% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Key Metrics

Bitcoin may be approaching one of its most appealing long-term buying windows, according to 21Shares, which maintains a base-case target of $100,000 by year-end. The firm attributes the current price decline primarily to macroeconomic headwinds rather than deterioration in the asset's fundamentals. Strive Asset Management CEO Matt Cole also projected at BTC Prague that Bitcoin is likely bottoming around its 200-week moving average, setting a target range of $80,000 to $120,000 by the end of the year. He emphasized that trading near this historical average presents an optimal window for bulls to take maximum risk.

Four Reasons for Accumulation

21Shares outlined four key reasons supporting the accumulation thesis in a report released on July 8. First, Bitcoin has entered the same post-peak time window where each of the previous three market cycles found a bottom, roughly one year after the cycle high and about two-and-a-half years after the halving. Historically, investors buying during this period generated average returns of around 130% by the following halving.

Second, on-chain valuation metrics resemble prior cycle lows. The median Bitcoin holder is at breakeven for the first time this cycle, with selling pressure largely coming from recent buyers while long-term holders have continued accumulating. Third, downside risk appears more limited than in previous bear markets because Bitcoin's realized price now sits much closer to market highs, reducing the amount of excess valuation that typically unwinds during prolonged downturns.

Finally, Bitcoin continues to hold above key long-term technical support, including its 200-week moving average and realized price. The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are converging, flashing a crossover pattern previously seen only near major cycle bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022.

Price Targets and Market Sentiment

Both firms provided specific scenarios for Bitcoin's trajectory. 21Shares posits that a weekly close below $58,000 could open the door to the $50,000-$55,000 range near Bitcoin's realized price. Cole outlined three scenarios: a bear case placing the asset between current levels and $40,000, a base case of $80,000 to $120,000, and a positive scenario pushing it to $100,000 or all-time highs.

Strategic Accumulation and Industry Outlook

Regarding Strategy Inc.'s sale of 32 Bitcoin in May, Cole revealed Strive purchased the exact same amount that week, describing the move as partially deliberate. He pushed back on narratives interpreting the sale as bearish, arguing such fears would "age really poorly." Strive holds nearly 20,000 Bitcoin and maintains 18 months of cash and marketable securities, positioning the firm to withstand a price drop to $40,000 through the end of 2027 without selling coins.

Cole expressed a bearish outlook on all crypto assets except Bitcoin, citing Bitmine Immersion Technologies receiving a lower cost of capital than Strive despite being backed by Ethereum as evidence of mispriced risk. He argued that Ethereum's underperformance of Bitcoin by 15% annually since staking launched in 2020 invalidates the staking yield thesis. Looking ahead, Cole forecasts digital credit—Bitcoin-backed yield instruments like Strive's SATA and STRC—could grow into a multi-trillion dollar asset class by 2030.