Tom Lee says missing Bitcoin's best days breaks returns
Tom Lee told Anthony Scaramucci that missing Bitcoin's 10 best trading days annually turns returns negative, while current sentiment is worse than post-FTX levels. He noted Bitmine Immersion Technologies holds $600 million in cash and generates $250 million in annual staking rewards.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Tom Lee told Anthony Scaramucci on Friday that timing Bitcoin is a losing game, given nearly all of its annual gains come from a tiny handful of trading days. Lee said Bitcoin has delivered the best compounded annual return of any asset over the past 10 to 15 years, but that performance hides a brutal truth underneath it. Strip out the 10 best trading days each year, and an investor’s return flips to negative 27% annually instead.
Market Comparisons and Sentiment
The same pattern holds in traditional markets. Lee said the S&P 500 has compounded at roughly 9% a year since 1929, but missing its 10 best days each year drops that return to negative territory, with those 10 days averaging a 2,100 basis point swing in performance. Over just the past three years, missing the S&P’s 10 best days cost investors more than 24 percentage points of return.
Lee described current crypto sentiment as worse than the period following FTX’s implosion. Bitcoin’s RSI sits at an all-time low, Google search volume has dropped, and the fear and greed index reads more negative than it did during the FTX crisis. He attributed part of the price weakness to capital rotating into AI rather than any breakdown in crypto’s underlying thesis.
Strategy Inc. and Bitmine Immersion Technologies
Lee compared Michael Saylor’s position to a B-17 bomber falling behind formation, the exact target fighters would attack first. He said short sellers are testing Strategy Inc.’s public capital structure precisely because it’s accessible to attack in ways Bitcoin’s blockchain itself is not. Lee said the strongest defense for Saylor is raising cash through common stock sales rather than selling Bitcoin, since Bitcoin sales create a spoofing effect given Saylor’s outsized influence on the market.
Lee, who chairs Bitmine Immersion Technologies’ board, said the company operates with a deliberately conservative capital structure during the current crypto winter. Bitmine keeps roughly $600 million in cash, stakes about 80% of its Ethereum holdings, and generates more than $250 million annually in staking rewards alone.
| Company | Cash Holdings | Staking Rewards | Staked Ethereum Holdings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitmine Immersion Technologies | $600 million | $250 million annually | 80% |
He pointed to Bitmine’s stakes in Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings as undervalued components of the broader story, alongside the company’s active role funding Ethereum Foundation spin-off entities like ETH Labs. Lee said Ethereum stands to benefit directly as Wall Street tokenizes stocks and funds onto its blockchain, since Ethereum remains the most widely used network for that purpose.
If the current rotation of capital into AI persists, how long might it take for crypto sentiment to recover from levels worse than the post-FTX era?
Could the sustained negative sentiment and low RSI signal a larger market correction, or does it indicate a bottom is forming for Bitcoin?
As Wall Street tokenizes traditional assets, will Ethereum's dominance in this sector be enough to drive significant price appreciation despite the broader market weakness?
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