Valero Energy Q2FY26 Results: EPS jumps to $12.54 on record margins
- Valero Energy Q2 adjusted EPS rose to $12.54 from $2.28 a year earlier
- Revenue jumped 48.8% YoY to $44.48 billion on record refining margins
- Diesel gross margin hit a new record of roughly $104 per barrel
- Stock has rallied over 200% in two years, outperforming Magnificent Seven peers
- Consensus analyst price target of $283 remains 31.4% below current trading levels

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $12.54 per share, a sharp rise from $2.28 a year earlier. The U.S. refiner’s stock has gained over 200% in two years, outpacing major tech peers.
The surge follows a period of tightened global fuel flows and widening refining margins. Valero’s shares traded at $415 on Friday morning, setting a fresh intraday high of $416.66. Over the same two-year period, the strongest Magnificent Seven stock, Alphabet Inc., rose 119%, while Nvidia Corp. gained 93.5%.
Record Refining Margins
Valero earns money from the difference between crude input costs and refined-product prices, known as the crack spread. In 2026, disruptions to global fuel flows, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have tightened both crude and refined-product markets.
On Friday morning, ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures traded at $4.9192 a gallon. With 42 gallons in a barrel, diesel was worth about $206.61 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $102. The difference represents roughly $104 a barrel of gross margin on diesel alone, a new record.
The historical norm for the blended 3-2-1 refining margin is around $19 a barrel. That measure sits near $61 today. Valero owns 14 refineries across the U.S., Canada and the U.K., with roughly 3 million barrels per day of throughput capacity.
Earnings Performance
Valero reported second-quarter revenue of $44.48 billion, up 48.8% year-over-year. Refining margin per barrel of throughput reached $23.62, compared with $12.35 in the same quarter of 2025. Throughput averaged 2.95 million barrels a day across 15 refineries.
In the first half of 2026, the company generated $6.97 billion in operating cash flow. It returned $2.84 billion through buybacks and $714 million in dividends over the same period. Trailing twelve-month earnings per share reached $23.93 through the second quarter, against full-year 2025 net income of $2.34 billion.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Q2 Revenue | $44.48 billion |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +48.8% |
| Adjusted EPS | $12.54 |
| Prior Year EPS | $2.28 |
| Refining Margin (Q2) | $23.62 per barrel |
Analyst Valuation Gap
Valero carries a consensus Overweight rating from 15 analysts tracked by Benzinga Analyst Ratings, with an average price target of $283. That is 31.4% below where the stock trades. However, recent targets reflect a shift in sentiment.
Every target set in the past three weeks sits far above the average. On September 14, 2026, Raymond James raised its target to $450, and Morgan Stanley raised its target to $411. UBS also raised its target to $450 on September 8, 2026.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between trailing earnings and analyst targets highlights a valuation disconnect. With trailing twelve-month earnings at $23.93 per share and the stock trading at $415, the company trades at 17.2 times trailing earnings. This multiple is significantly higher than what the consensus average price target of $283 implies, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained high margins rather than reverting to historical norms.
How sustainable are the current record-high refining margins given the geopolitical risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz closure?
Will Valero's significant capital return program via buybacks and dividends be maintained if refining margins revert to historical norms?
What specific operational or strategic adjustments is Valero making to justify its current 17.2x trailing earnings multiple compared to the consensus price target?

































