Upstart Holdings, Inc. has revised the reporting framework for its Upstart Macro Index (UMI) to enhance clarity for investors and capital partners, while the underlying calculation methodology remains unchanged. The latest UMI reading stands at 1.49, reflecting a 2% increase from 1.46 as of June 3, 2026. This rise indicates that Upstart's models estimate macroeconomic conditions are contributing slightly more default risk than in early June. The index remains below its peak of 1.68 reached in January 2024 but has stayed above the baseline of 1.0 since February 2022, signaling sustained elevated risk.

Changes to UMI Reporting

Upstart has implemented three key updates to how the UMI is named, published, and historically tracked. These adjustments are designed to make the index easier to interpret without altering its calculation or its use in the company's underwriting processes.

Naming Convention

Previously, UMI readings were named for the month of loan payments they described, such as the "May UMI" published in June. Under the new convention, each reading is named based on the date it is published. For example, the "July 8, 2026 UMI" reflects payment data through July 2, 2026. Once published, a reading will not be updated with subsequent payment data, except to correct errors or reflect major model upgrades.

Publication Timeline

Upstart will now publish the latest UMI reading together with its monthly origination metrics. This release will typically occur before the stock market opens on the third calendar day after each origination month ends. If this date falls on a weekend or federal holiday, the company intends to publish pre-market on the following business day.

Historical Data

The company has revised its historical UMI data series to align with the new naming convention. For ease of comparability, historical data points are labeled as published on the third calendar day of each month, regardless of their original publication date.

Current UMI Reading and Context

The current UMI of 1.49 is approximately 49% above the level expected in a normal economy (UMI of 1.0), up from about 46% above normal in the prior reading. The UMI serves as a proxy for the macroeconomic risk assumptions factored into the pricing and approval of new loans on Upstart's platform. It also provides a directional sense of how existing loans are performing, based on the risk levels assumed at the time of underwriting.

Paul Gu, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart, is scheduled to host a live question-and-answer session on X (@paulxgu) on July 9, 2026, at 8:00am ET to discuss these changes.

BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic has reaffirmed a Buy rating for Upstart Holdings, maintaining a price target of $43. The reiteration signals continued confidence in the company's stock performance potential.

The analyst's stance highlights Upstart Holdings' position within the market as assessed by BTIG. The $43 price target provides a specific benchmark for investors regarding the stock's valuation expectations.

Analyst Details

The following table outlines the key ratings and targets provided by BTIG: