TotalEnergies SE forecasts stronger third-quarter performance in its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refining businesses, with refining margins expected to jump to $33.2 per barrel.

The company attributes this outlook to higher LNG prices, increased trading activity, and rising refining margins amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The projected refining margin represents a significant increase from $8.4 per barrel recorded a year earlier.

LNG Trading and Refining Margins Boost Outlook

Integrated LNG results are expected to rise sharply as average LNG prices increased 20% quarter over quarter to $12.28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Stronger gas trading supported performance during the Strait of Hormuz conflict, while expectations of robust winter demand further bolstered the sector.

Refining & Chemicals cash flow is projected to increase by $2 billion from the second quarter. A 10% rise in refining throughput allowed the company to capitalize on historically high refining margins in Europe and other markets. Oil trading remains strong, with performance expected to match the previous two quarters, while Marketing & Services maintains solid performance.

Production Growth Set to Beat Guidance

Hydrocarbon production is estimated at 2.45 million to 2.50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict are expected to ease, affecting only about 5% of total production. Excluding these disruptions, production is set to grow more than 4% year over year, surpassing the annual growth guidance of 3%.

Exploration & Production results benefit from higher output and gas prices, though lower oil prices may partially offset gains compared with the second quarter.

Power Business and Cash Flow Outlook

Integrated Power cash flow is forecast at $750 million to $800 million, supported by a full quarter of contributions from TTEP, the joint venture with EPH. The company also anticipates a positive working capital contribution of approximately $3 billion during the quarter.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between the massive jump in refining margins (from $8.4 to $33.2 per barrel) and the more moderate 20% rise in LNG prices highlights the disproportionate impact of downstream operational efficiency and throughput increases on immediate cash flow generation compared to upstream commodity price movements.

Analyst Forecasts and Market Reaction

Analysts expect earnings per share of $3.40, up from $1.77 a year earlier, with revenue projected at $69.29 billion. TotalEnergies shares rose 1.52% to $91.00 in premarket trading on Thursday, approaching the 52-week high of $94.17.

TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating with a $105 price target, while JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral. Piper Sandler maintained a Neutral rating with a $93 target.

TotalEnergies SE reported a total of 2,281,656,714 shares in its share capital as of September 30, 2026. The theoretical number of voting rights attached to these shares also stood at 2,281,656,714.

The disclosure was made in compliance with Article L.233-8-II of the French Commercial Code and article 223-16 of the General Regulation of the AMF. This regulatory filing provides transparency on the company's capital structure and voting power distribution.

Voting Rights Breakdown

The exercisable voting rights differ from the theoretical count due to the deduction of treasury shares. The table below details the share count and voting rights as of the reporting date.

Treasury Share Impact

The difference between the theoretical and exercisable voting rights is attributed to 74,975,030 treasury shares. These shares are held by the company itself and do not carry exercisable voting rights, reducing the total from the theoretical maximum.

Regulatory Context

The theoretical number of voting rights is calculated based on all shares to which voting rights are attached, including those where voting rights have been suspended. This calculation method aligns with Article 223-11 of the AMF General Regulation. The exercisable figure represents the actual voting power available to shareholders after excluding the company's own holdings.