Starbucks cuts FY26 outlook to 440 stores; USW union condemns closures
- Starbucks cuts FY26 net new global store outlook to 440 from 600-650
- Company plans to close approximately 250 underperforming North America stores
- USW union condemns closures, demanding better transition support for baristas
- Analysts estimate EPS of $0.69 (+32.7% YoY) despite revenue decline to $9.22 billion

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) reduced its fiscal 2026 net new global coffeehouse openings to approximately 440, down from previous guidance of 600 to 650. The revision follows board approval to close about 1% of its more than 18,000 North America stores that fail to meet performance standards.
The United Steelworkers (USW) union has condemned the decision, calling it an example of prioritizing profits over workers. While no USW-represented locations have been confirmed for closure, the union expressed deep concern for baristas across Canada and the United States.
Restructuring and store portfolio adjustments
The company’s "Back to Starbucks" strategy aims to revitalize coffeehouses and improve customer experience. The revised outlook reflects approximately 250 North America closures, partially offset by higher net new openings in international markets. This move signals a shift from aggressive expansion to portfolio optimization, focusing on financial performance and brand standards.
Starbucks estimates $300 million in restructuring charges, comprising $200 million in cash costs for lease exits and employee separation, and $100 million in non-cash charges for asset disposal and impairment. The closures are expected to be completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
Union response and labor concerns
Scott Lunny, USW Director for Western Canada, stated that the closures are hard on workers, many of whom are students or hold multiple jobs. He argued that Starbucks remains profitable and should not treat employees as disposable to squeeze out better returns elsewhere.
The union demanded that Starbucks find affected baristas jobs at other locations in a timely manner, provide meaningful training and retraining, and offer financial support. Lunny emphasized the need for proper notice and a real transition plan, noting that the impacts will be felt by customers as well.
Earnings expectations and analyst consensus
Market focus shifts to the estimated October 28, 2026 earnings report. Analysts project earnings per share of 69 cents, up from 52 cents year-over-year. Revenue is estimated at $9.22 billion, a decline from $9.57 billion in the prior year.
| Metric | Estimate | Prior Year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.69 | $0.52 | +32.7% |
| Revenue | $9.22 billion | $9.57 billion | -3.7% |
| P/E Ratio | 54.1x | N/A | Premium valuation |
The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $111.31 across 33 analysts. Recent actions include a Neutral initiation by Seaport Global and target raises by BTIG ($115) and UBS ($112).
What the numbers show
A divergence exists between profit growth and top-line contraction. While EPS is forecast to rise 32.7% YoY, revenue is projected to fall 3.7%. This suggests that the upcoming quarter’s profitability improvement may be driven by cost efficiencies or margin expansion rather than volume growth, aligning with the strategic pivot toward closing underperforming assets.
ETF exposure and market reaction
Starbucks shares rose 0.45% to $94.05 during morning trading. The stock holds significant weight in several exchange-traded funds, meaning large fund flows could impact its price.
- Corgi Coffee & Energy Drinks ETF (BATS: BREW): 17.20% weight
- State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLY): 2.91% weight
- Capital Group Conservative Equity ETF (NYSE: CGCV): 2.55% weight
How might the 3.7% projected revenue decline impact Starbucks' ability to sustain its premium P/E ratio of 54.1x if top-line growth remains negative?
Will the $200 million in cash restructuring costs significantly dilute free cash flow, potentially affecting future dividend increases or share buyback programs?
Could the USW's demands for retraining and financial support lead to increased labor costs or legal liabilities that offset the savings from closing underperforming stores?
































