Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund LLC, said Wednesday that SpaceX's (NASDAQ: SPCX) early trading surge may be losing its "meme stock" character now that options trading has given investors a new way to bet against the stock. The comments come as SpaceX shares fell 4.95% on Wednesday to $191.82, marking the first decline since the company's record public debut. The stock had previously surged nearly 50% from its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, reaching a high of $201.80 on Tuesday.

Black wrote on X that he had resisted commenting on SPCX as it acted more like a meme stock than one driven by fundamentals, but that dynamic "may be ending." He noted that investors who wanted to place bearish bets were finally able to buy puts as of Tuesday. Black argued that the stock's 50% rally from its IPO price reflected a market with few ways to sell or short the shares, citing lockup limits, scarce borrowable stock, and the absence of put options until Tuesday. "While many SPCX bulls screamed ‘I told you so' when the stock was soaring, the reality was there were few outlets for selling," Black wrote.

The pullback followed Tuesday's launch of options trading, when nearly 1.8 million contracts changed hands, according to Reuters, citing Trade Alert data. This volume topped the previous first-day record of about 365,000 contracts set by Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) in 2012. SpaceX's market value fell from $2.66 trillion on Tuesday to $2.57 trillion on Wednesday. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens estimates fair value at $780 billion, less than one-third of that level.

Black said investors should revisit SpaceX's performance after lockups begin expiring in August and traders can more easily take bearish positions. Steve Grasso, CEO of Grasso Global, pushed back on fears around an accelerated lockup release. He said another 10% of eligible insider shares would become available only if SpaceX closes at or above $175.50, or 30% above its IPO price, on at least five of the 10 straight trading days before second-quarter earnings. Even then, he said, the August lockup schedule would remain, with the first unlock rising from 20% to 30%.

The comments follow Black's earlier skepticism about SpaceX's IPO valuation. Last month, he said he was "not that interested" in the offering and would be "more interested after it falls by 50%," arguing that the Elon Musk-led rocket and satellite company looked expensive near a $1.75 trillion valuation. SpaceX shares climbed 1.75% to $195.17 in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

A potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla Inc. could create a $5 trillion entity, rivaling Nvidia Corp. for the title of the world's most valuable company. Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of such a transaction, driven by SpaceX's surging valuation and strategic synergies involving artificial intelligence and robotics.

SpaceX has surged nearly 50% to roughly $2.6 trillion following its recent initial public offering, significantly outpacing Tesla's $1.5 trillion market capitalization. Bloomberg columnist Liam Denning suggests that the widening valuation gap makes a merger more attractive, as SpaceX could absorb Tesla with fewer newly issued shares. An all-stock deal offering Tesla a one-third premium would value the automaker north of $2 trillion, potentially leaving Elon Musk with about 74% of the voting rights in the combined entity.

The financial mechanics of the merger are complex. SpaceX would pay approximately 138 times forward EBITDA for Tesla, a company currently described as cash-burning. Outside investors in SpaceX would see their stake diluted from roughly half the company to under a third. Morningstar has pegged SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion, significantly less than its current trading price on a 4% float.

Strategic Synergies and Risks

Beyond financial engineering, the merger is viewed through the lens of technology integration. SpaceX has already absorbed xAI at a $250 billion valuation and agreed to buy coding startup Cursor for $60 billion. Incorporating Tesla would add real-world robotics data from Full Self-Driving and the Optimus robot to SpaceX's existing Starlink orbital footprint.

For Nvidia, the primary threat lies in the vertical integration of these companies. Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX are major chip purchasers, but Musk has proposed building his own semiconductor fabrication plant, dubbed Terafab. This facility, estimated to cost roughly $25 billion, aims to produce Tesla's AI5 chips and custom silicon for satellites, reducing reliance on external suppliers.

Market Odds and Regulatory Hurdles

Prediction markets reflect growing speculation about the merger. Polymarket indicates a 69% chance that Nvidia retains its crown as the largest company by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders price the probability of a SpaceX-Tesla merger before May 2027 between 45% and 55%, a rise from the mid-20s earlier in the year.

Regulatory approval remains a significant barrier. SpaceX operates as a national security asset with classified satellite work, while Tesla possesses deep manufacturing and consumer exposure in China. Regulators may hesitate to place defense infrastructure and a global automaker under a single corporate umbrella due to antitrust and national security concerns.