SoftBank Group Corp. has revived negotiations with a consortium of lenders for a $10 billion loan backed by its stake in OpenAI after restructuring the proposal to include a corporate repayment guarantee. The Japanese technology investor is offering to guarantee repayment of the loan, giving banks recourse to SoftBank if the OpenAI shares pledged as collateral lose value. This move addresses lenders' reluctance to accept stakes in privately held companies as collateral due to valuation and liquidity challenges. The lending consortium is expected to include Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Mizuho Financial Group.

Revised Loan Structure

The revised proposal marks a shift from SoftBank’s earlier structure, under which banks would have had recourse only to the collateral and not to the company’s broader assets. SoftBank had initially sought to secure the financing solely against its OpenAI investment, but lenders pushed back over concerns that the shares alone might not adequately protect them if their value declined. Unlike a previous financing effort backed by publicly traded Arm Holdings shares, the OpenAI-backed loan involves a private company, making valuation more challenging for lenders.

AI Spending and Commitments

The financing forms part of founder Masayoshi Son’s aggressive artificial intelligence investment strategy. SoftBank has committed more than $60 billion to OpenAI and related AI infrastructure initiatives, including the Stargate data center venture with OpenAI and Oracle Corp. The company faces a March 2027 deadline to repay a $40 billion bridge loan used to help finance its OpenAI investment. OpenAI has confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering in June, a move that could eventually make SoftBank’s stake easier to value and use as collateral.

Fiscal 2025 Performance

SoftBank reported its full-year fiscal 2025 results in May 2026. The company posted net sales of ¥7,798.7 billion, a 7.7% increase year-over-year. Net income reached ¥5,002.3 billion, representing a 333.7% rise from the previous year. This profit growth was driven by mark-to-market gains on AI holdings, including OpenAI. SoftBank's net asset value (NAV) reached ¥40.1 trillion at fiscal year-end, up from ¥25.7 trillion a year earlier. The company held a cash position of ¥3.5 trillion as of the end of March.

Liquidity and Bond Issuances

Despite the stock decline, SoftBank has strengthened its liquidity buffer through repeated bond offerings in 2026. In April, the company priced ¥418 billion ($2.6 billion) in 35-year subordinated hybrid notes with a 4.97% coupon to refinance bonds reaching their first call date. That same month, SoftBank raised approximately $3.5 billion across six tranches in dollar and euro markets to refinance existing foreign-currency notes and partially repay a bridge loan tied to OpenAI investments. In May and June, SoftBank raised an additional ¥260 billion ($1.6 billion) through a second retail hybrid bond with a coupon range of 4.8%–5.6%.

SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son has dismissed the economic viability of placing AI data centers in orbit, arguing that the AI race will be won on the ground rather than in space. Speaking at a SoftBank shareholder meeting, Son contended that electricity constitutes only a small fraction of data center costs, meaning the solar power savings available in space cannot offset the substantial expenses related to launch, maintenance, and latency. He further characterized the initiative as a timing issue, suggesting that while orbital projects may take a decade to complete, the winner of the AI race will likely be determined within that same timeframe.

Son highlighted technical challenges specific to the space environment, noting that dissipating heat in a vacuum is difficult. He referenced a white paper from orbital-compute startup Starcloud, which indicated that a single megawatt of space-based servers would require a radiator approximately the size of a hockey rink. This perspective contrasts with views from other industry leaders; Jeff Bezos recently described orbital data centers as "very realistic," though he acknowledged that timelines of two to three years are likely too ambitious.

Market Sentiment and Trading Data

Financial markets appear to align with Son's skepticism regarding the near-term feasibility of space-based data centers. Data from prediction market platform Kalshi indicates that the probability of a single one-megawatt data center going live in orbit is approximately 23% before 2031. The odds improve only slightly to about 38% for a launch before 2035.

SpaceX Financial Movements

SpaceX recently priced its first investment-grade bond, raising roughly $20 billion with top ratings from all three major agencies. The company disclosed a cash pile of $100.8 billion. Despite these financial metrics, SpaceX stock experienced volatility, falling from its mid-June peak to close near $154 on Monday before rebounding on Tuesday. The decline coincided with concerns regarding upcoming share unlocks, as insiders can sell up to 44% of all shares by early September, potentially increasing the public float by roughly 900%.

While Son advocates for terrestrial data centers and Elon Musk pushes for orbital solutions, Nvidia Corp. stands to benefit as the primary chip supplier for both approaches. SoftBank's stock also reflected broader market trends, dropping about 10% on Tuesday amid a global selloff in AI-chip stocks that impacted Asian technology sectors.