Shell plc has released an updated outlook for the third quarter of 2026, signaling a significant recovery in refining margins while projecting stable upstream production levels. The energy major expects its indicative refining margin to rise sharply to $42/bbl from $24/bbl in the second quarter, driven by favorable market conditions.

The company’s final results are scheduled for publication on October 29, 2026. All outlook statements exclude identified items unless otherwise indicated. The update provides detailed guidance across Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, and Chemicals and Products segments.

Segment Performance Guidance

In the Integrated Gas segment, production is expected to increase to 740-780 kboe/d, up from 631 kboe/d in Q2. This growth includes the acquisition of ARC Resources, which completed on September 2, 2026. LNG liquefaction volumes are projected at 7.2-7.6 MT, slightly lower than the 7.7 MT recorded in the previous quarter.

The Upstream division anticipates production between 1,735-1,835 kboe/d, compared to 1,824 kboe/d in Q2. Underlying operating expenses for this segment are expected to range from $2.1 billion to $2.5 billion. Exploration well write-offs are estimated at approximately $0.3 billion.

Marketing sales volumes are guided at 2,550-2,650 kb/d, consistent with the prior quarter's 2,570 kb/d. However, adjusted earnings for Marketing are expected to be lower than Q2 levels. The Chemicals and Products segment faces a divergence in margins: refining margins surge, but indicative chemicals margins fall to $208/tonne from $270/tonne in Q2.

Operational Challenges and Cash Flow

Refinery utilisation is projected to decline to 93%-97% from 102% in Q2. The company attributes this reduction to low Rhine water levels impacting the Rheinland refinery. Chemicals utilisation remains relatively stable at 81%-85%, compared to 83% in the previous quarter.

Cash flow from operating activities (CFFO) excluding working capital is expected to include a significant outflow of approximately $2.5 billion related to the timing of payments for emissions certificates under the German BEHG (Fuel Emissions Trading Act). Historically, these payments occur in the fourth quarter of each calendar year.

What the Numbers Show

A key analytical observation from the data is the stark divergence between refining and chemicals margins. While the refining margin expanded by $18/bbl (a 75% increase), the chemicals margin contracted by $62/tonne (a 23% decrease). This suggests that downstream product demand or spread dynamics are favoring fuels over petrochemical derivatives in the current macro environment. Additionally, the $2.5 billion BEHG payment outflow represents a substantial near-term cash obligation that will impact CFFO despite potentially neutral annualized effects.

Net debt is expected to be impacted by the cash consideration and assumed debt from the ARC Resources acquisition, alongside increased variable components of long-term shipping leases. Renewables and Energy Solutions adjusted earnings are guided at $0.0-$0.4 billion, showing improvement from the $0.1 billion reported in Q2.

Shell plc announced its total voting rights stood at 5,729,497,530 as of September 30, 2026. The figure serves as the denominator for shareholders calculating notification thresholds under UK regulatory rules.

The company’s capital structure comprised 5,729,497,530 ordinary shares, each with a nominal value of €0.07. All issued shares carried voting rights. Shell held no shares in treasury, ensuring the total number of voting rights matched the total number of ordinary shares outstanding.

Regulatory compliance and shareholder obligations

This disclosure complies with Rule 5.6.1 of the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules (DTR). Shareholders use this total voting rights figure to determine whether their interest in the company, or any change to it, triggers mandatory notification requirements.

What the numbers show

The exact alignment between the number of ordinary shares and total voting rights indicates a one-share-one-vote structure with no dilution from treasury stock. Since no shares were held in treasury, every issued share contributed equally to the voting pool. This transparency allows shareholders to precisely calculate their percentage holdings against the fixed denominator of 5,729,497,530 votes.