Investor Ross Gerber expressed skepticism that Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) can deliver unsupervised Full Self-Driving using its existing HW4 chip, citing a recent investor note from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).

Gerber argued on X on Thursday that while the current AI/HW4 stack may run V15 software, it lacks the compute power for true autonomy. He quoted the JPMorgan note stating that Tesla’s future AI4.5 system is designed to handle rising compute demands, implying current vehicles will not become robotaxis.

Hardware Limitations Cited

Gerber stated that the consumer’s Tesla vehicle "will never be a real robo cab." He concluded that the current hardware may not achieve Level 3-4-5 autonomy. This view aligns with his earlier frustration regarding the system’s inability to handle dynamic road conditions in his neighborhood.

Musk Projects Strong Growth

Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk reaffirmed his bullish outlook for Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX). He stated both enterprises would exceed bullish revenue growth estimates by the end of the decade.

Market Reaction

Tesla shares rose 0.70% to $347.53 during overnight trading on Thursday. Benzinga Edge Rankings indicate moderate scores for growth and quality, with unfavorable price trends across short, medium, and long terms.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Musk’s projection of exceeding revenue estimates and Gerber’s assertion that core autonomous technology is delayed highlights a tension between financial optimism and technical execution timelines.

Y Combinator co-founder Paul Graham highlighted a significant shift in Tesla Inc.'s value proposition, stating that buyers now receive more range for less money compared to a decade ago. Graham noted that his wife, Jessica Livingston, recently purchased a Tesla for $48,000 that offers approximately 350 miles of range. He contrasted this with a vehicle Livingston bought in 2015, which he said cost the equivalent of $135,000 in today's dollars and had a range of 270 miles. Graham wrote on X that people who think they dislike capitalism do not know how good they have it, a sentiment echoed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who replied "True" to the post.

Model Identification And Pricing Context

Graham did not specify the exact model of the new purchase. However, Tesla's inventory lists a 2026 Model Y Premium Rear-Wheel Drive at $45,990 with an EPA-estimated 357-mile range. Tesla raised that trim's U.S. price by $1,000 in May, while the Premium All-Wheel Drive rose to $49,990. This pricing structure suggests the vehicle Graham referenced aligns closely with the updated Model Y lineup, reflecting Tesla's strategy to lower entry costs through specific trim adjustments.

Scale And Battery Cost Dynamics

The comparison underscores Tesla's evolution from its premium-only beginnings. In 2015, Tesla's annual filing indicated the Model S offered up to 288 miles of EPA-rated range, and the company delivered 50,580 vehicles that year. A decade later, Tesla delivered 1.636 million vehicles in 2025, more than 32 times the volume of 2015, despite an 8.6% annual decline as competition intensified.

Falling battery costs have been a primary driver of this affordability shift. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates lithium-ion battery-pack costs for light-duty EVs fell 90% from 2008 to 2023, dropping from $1,415 per kilowatt-hour to $139 in constant 2023 dollars due to better chemistries, technology, and manufacturing scale. The International Energy Agency reported average battery prices fell another 8% in 2025, while the average U.S. battery-electric vehicle retail price slipped nearly 2%.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between volume growth and price reduction reveals a structural change in Tesla's economics. While deliveries grew more than 32-fold from 2015 to 2025, the inflation-adjusted price point cited by Graham dropped by approximately 64% (from $135,000 to $48,000) while range increased by roughly 30% (from 270 to 350 miles). This indicates that gains in manufacturing scale and battery efficiency have outpaced revenue growth per unit, allowing Tesla to maintain volume leadership even as it faces an 8.6% annual sales decline.

Affordability Remains Uneven

Despite these improvements, EV affordability is not universal across the market. The IEA stated fewer than 20% of U.S. electric models in 2024 and 2025 carried base prices below the roughly $40,000 median paid for an internal-combustion car. Tesla introduced lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y variants in 2025 to reduce entry costs, but the broader market still lacks widespread parity with traditional vehicles.

Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings indicate that TSLA stock maintains a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long term, with a moderate growth and quality score. TSLA stock was down 0.83% to $348.19 during pre-market trading on Thursday.