Prediction markets are pricing in a significant likelihood that Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) will merge before 2028. Data from regulated prediction platform Kalshi shows the probability of the deal finalizing by the end of 2027 has risen to 71%, up from an earlier estimate of 65%. Meanwhile, Polymarket assigns a 55% chance to the same outcome.

Market Probability Shifts

The divergence in short-term expectations is evident in Polymarket’s data for a 2026 completion. The probability of a merger by December 31, 2026, has fallen sharply to 20% from a high of 57% recorded in May. This contraction suggests market participants view a near-term closure as increasingly unlikely, pushing the expected timeline into 2027 or later.

Catalysts and Corporate Context

JPMorgan noted in July that discussions around a combination have become more practical, identifying SpaceX’s record-breaking initial public offering as a key catalyst. The bank suggested the liquidity event could facilitate a larger corporate restructuring involving Tesla.

Elon Musk addressed speculation during Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call last month. He acknowledged growing collaboration between the entities but declined to discuss specifics, stating that any merger "has to go through the appropriate process." Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) co-founder Joe Lonsdale previously highlighted potential synergies, noting the companies would "definitely be collaborating."

Musk has a recent history of consolidating his ventures. Earlier this year, SpaceX acquired artificial intelligence startup xAI in an all-stock deal. In 2025, Musk merged social media platform X into xAI, valuing the combined entity at $80 billion.

What the Numbers Show

The widening gap between Kalshi and Polymarket probabilities highlights differing interpretations of the merger timeline. While both platforms agree on a pre-2028 completion, Kalshi’s higher aggregate probability (71%) versus Polymarket’s (55%) suggests varying confidence levels among distinct trader bases regarding regulatory and operational hurdles.

Stock Price Action

SpaceX shares closed at $146.23 on Monday, up 4.45% during regular trading hours. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped 0.25%. Tesla shares fell 0.87% to close at $339.40. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicated a strong trend for SPCX across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons.

Former Top Gear and The Grand Tour host James May has publicly criticized Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Grok-powered voice assistant, describing the AI's attempts to sound human as insincere and phony. In a video shared on his YouTube channel James May's Planet Gin on Sunday, May tested the assistant, which had assumed the Ara personality, inside a Model 3.

Testing the Ara Persona

May engaged in a conversation with the voice assistant to test several features. These included playing a children's trivia game, sarcastically seeking extreme medical advice, and asking the assistant to switch to a British accent. Tesla offers multiple personas for its voice assistant, including Ara, an upbeat female voice; Eve, a soothing female voice; Leo, a British male voice; Rex, a calm male voice; and Sal, a smooth male voice.

After the interaction, May stated that the program appeared to have been created by socially awkward people who held a flawed idea of what a charming person would sound like. He remarked that the assistant was slightly odd and did not seem human. May suggested that while the engineers and programmers at X were clever, they might be socially inept, resulting in a voice assistant that came off as insincere.

Tesla AI and Manufacturing Updates

The criticism arrives as Tesla AI Chief Ashok Elluswamy praised the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system following a video of a Tesla avoiding a collision on the freeway. Elluswamy posted on the social media platform X that users can have James Bond as their personal driver.

Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasized the automaker's domestic manufacturing capabilities. He stated that the company's vehicles are produced in the U.S. with 84% American content. This focus on domestic manufacturing follows the reaffirmation of tariffs on the auto industry by the Donald Trump administration.

Market Reaction

TSLA shares rose 0.25% to $343.12 during pre-market trading on Monday.