Bernstein raises Riot Platforms price target to $35 on AI deal

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Key Highlights

Bernstein raises Riot Platforms price target to $35, citing 80% upside from a $9.1 billion AI data center deal. Analyst Gautam Chhugani maintains Outperform rating, highlighting the shift from bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure.

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Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani maintains an Outperform rating on Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) and raises the price target to $35 from $30. The upgrade reflects nearly 80% upside potential as the company’s artificial intelligence infrastructure business overtakes bitcoin mining as its primary value driver. This strategic pivot is anchored by a $9.1 billion data center agreement with a leading frontier AI lab, reportedly Anthropic.

The 20-year colocation agreement is projected to generate approximately $457 million in annual recurring revenue. Bernstein estimates the contract could produce annual net operating income (NOI) between $365 million and $411 million. To support this expansion, Riot requires capital expenditure of roughly $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion. The firm has secured a $573 million interim financing facility from Morgan Stanley for initial equipment procurement.

Strategic Shift and Financing Needs

The economics of the Anthropic deal prompted Bernstein to significantly upgrade its assumptions for Riot’s AI colocation operations. However, the firm notes that Riot will need an additional $3.7 billion in secured financing, equivalent to roughly 90% of the project capital expenditure required under its modeled buildout. Key risks identified by Bernstein include financing requirements, construction execution challenges, and Riot’s geographic concentration in Texas.

Bitcoin Mining Transition

Riot’s transformation also impacts its bitcoin strategy. As of June 30, the company held 11,380 BTC, worth around $731.5 million at current prices, down from a peak holding of 19,368 BTC. Bernstein noted that Riot has been selling bitcoin production and reserves to help finance its data center expansion. This shift illustrates how some bitcoin miners are increasingly treating their large power portfolios as infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing rather than relying exclusively on cryptocurrency mining economics.

Sector-Wide Trend

Riot is not alone in this strategic pivot. MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) and CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) are also expanding into high-performance computing to capitalize on AI demand and diversify as bitcoin mining becomes increasingly difficult due to rising network hash rates and competition.

Metric Value
New Price Target $35
Previous Price Target $30
Estimated Upside ~80%
Annual Recurring Revenue $457 million
Projected Annual NOI $365–$411 million
Required CapEx $2.1–$2.3 billion

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Riot’s legacy mining operations and its emerging data center business is stark. While bitcoin mining revenue contracted by nearly 19% year-over-year in Q2 2026, the new AI infrastructure deals provide substantial visibility into future cash flows insulated from cryptocurrency volatility. Bernstein’s analysis suggests that the high-margin nature of the AI contracts—potentially generating over $400 million in annual NOI—could fundamentally reprice the company’s equity, despite near-term execution and financing risks.

How might Riot Platforms' requirement for an additional $3.7 billion in secured financing impact its balance sheet leverage and credit ratings during the buildout phase?

What are the potential competitive implications for other Bitcoin miners like MARA and CleanSpark if Riot successfully executes this pivot, potentially raising the barrier to entry for AI infrastructure projects?

Could the geographic concentration of Riot's data centers in Texas expose the company to specific regulatory or energy grid risks that might affect the long-term stability of its $457 million annual recurring revenue?

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Riot Platforms reschedules Q2 2026 earnings call to Aug 10

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Reviewed by
Ashish TScanX News Team
Key Highlights

Riot Platforms, Inc. has moved its Q2 2026 earnings call to August 10, 2026, at 4:30 P.M. EST. The event will feature financial results and operational updates from its Bitcoin mining and data center business. Investors can join via webcast or dial-in using passcode 3868069.

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Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) has rescheduled its second quarter 2026 earnings conference call to Monday, August 10, 2026. The digital infrastructure company announced the new date on August 9, 2026, specifying that the event will commence at 4:30 P.M. EST. This update ensures stakeholders have the correct timing to access the financial results and management commentary for the period.

The conference call will be accessible through a live webcast and a telephone dial-in option for participants in the United States and internationally. Investors can register for the webcast using the link provided in the company's announcement. For those preferring audio access, Riot Platforms has designated specific toll-free and toll numbers for dial-in participation.

Dial-In and Webcast Details

Participants wishing to join the call via telephone must use the audience passcode 3868069. The company has provided two distinct numbers for global accessibility, ensuring that international investors can connect without issue. A replay of the webcast will be made available shortly after the live session concludes.

Access Method Details
Date Monday, August 10, 2026
Time 4:30 P.M. EST
US Toll-Free +1 (800) 715-9871
International Toll +1 (646) 307-1963
Audience Passcode 3868069

Riot Platforms operates as a vertically integrated digital infrastructure provider, specializing in large-scale data centers and Bitcoin mining applications. The company maintains facilities in central Texas and Kentucky, with engineering and fabrication hubs located in Denver and Houston. The earnings call will likely cover operational updates from these sites alongside financial performance metrics for the second quarter of 2026.

Management’s forward-looking statements during the call will be subject to risks and uncertainties as outlined in the company’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. These filings include Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, which detail potential factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected outcomes. Investors are advised to review these documents for comprehensive risk assessments related to Riot’s business operations and strategic objectives.

How might the rescheduling of the Q2 2026 earnings call impact short-term trading volume and investor sentiment ahead of the August 10 announcement?

Will management provide updated guidance on Bitcoin mining hash rate capacity or energy consumption efficiency at the Texas and Kentucky facilities during the call?

Are there any strategic shifts in Riot Platforms' capital allocation plans, such as new data center expansions or acquisitions, expected to be disclosed in this quarter?

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