Bernstein raises Riot Platforms price target to $35 on AI deal
Bernstein raises Riot Platforms price target to $35, citing 80% upside from a $9.1 billion AI data center deal. Analyst Gautam Chhugani maintains Outperform rating, highlighting the shift from bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure.

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Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani maintains an Outperform rating on Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) and raises the price target to $35 from $30. The upgrade reflects nearly 80% upside potential as the company’s artificial intelligence infrastructure business overtakes bitcoin mining as its primary value driver. This strategic pivot is anchored by a $9.1 billion data center agreement with a leading frontier AI lab, reportedly Anthropic.
The 20-year colocation agreement is projected to generate approximately $457 million in annual recurring revenue. Bernstein estimates the contract could produce annual net operating income (NOI) between $365 million and $411 million. To support this expansion, Riot requires capital expenditure of roughly $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion. The firm has secured a $573 million interim financing facility from Morgan Stanley for initial equipment procurement.
Strategic Shift and Financing Needs
The economics of the Anthropic deal prompted Bernstein to significantly upgrade its assumptions for Riot’s AI colocation operations. However, the firm notes that Riot will need an additional $3.7 billion in secured financing, equivalent to roughly 90% of the project capital expenditure required under its modeled buildout. Key risks identified by Bernstein include financing requirements, construction execution challenges, and Riot’s geographic concentration in Texas.
Bitcoin Mining Transition
Riot’s transformation also impacts its bitcoin strategy. As of June 30, the company held 11,380 BTC, worth around $731.5 million at current prices, down from a peak holding of 19,368 BTC. Bernstein noted that Riot has been selling bitcoin production and reserves to help finance its data center expansion. This shift illustrates how some bitcoin miners are increasingly treating their large power portfolios as infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing rather than relying exclusively on cryptocurrency mining economics.
Sector-Wide Trend
Riot is not alone in this strategic pivot. MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) and CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) are also expanding into high-performance computing to capitalize on AI demand and diversify as bitcoin mining becomes increasingly difficult due to rising network hash rates and competition.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| New Price Target | $35 |
| Previous Price Target | $30 |
| Estimated Upside | ~80% |
| Annual Recurring Revenue | $457 million |
| Projected Annual NOI | $365–$411 million |
| Required CapEx | $2.1–$2.3 billion |
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between Riot’s legacy mining operations and its emerging data center business is stark. While bitcoin mining revenue contracted by nearly 19% year-over-year in Q2 2026, the new AI infrastructure deals provide substantial visibility into future cash flows insulated from cryptocurrency volatility. Bernstein’s analysis suggests that the high-margin nature of the AI contracts—potentially generating over $400 million in annual NOI—could fundamentally reprice the company’s equity, despite near-term execution and financing risks.
How might Riot Platforms' requirement for an additional $3.7 billion in secured financing impact its balance sheet leverage and credit ratings during the buildout phase?
What are the potential competitive implications for other Bitcoin miners like MARA and CleanSpark if Riot successfully executes this pivot, potentially raising the barrier to entry for AI infrastructure projects?
Could the geographic concentration of Riot's data centers in Texas expose the company to specific regulatory or energy grid risks that might affect the long-term stability of its $457 million annual recurring revenue?






























