Rio Tinto H1 EPS hits $4.21 estimate, sales miss forecast
Rio Tinto reported H1 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.21, meeting analyst expectations, while sales of $31.028 billion missed the $32.030 billion estimate. Despite the sales miss, profit after tax surged 47% to $6.7 billion, driven by a 28% rise in underlying EBITDA and strong operational execution across copper, iron ore, and aluminum segments.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Rio Tinto reported first-half 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $4.21, meeting analyst consensus estimates, while consolidated sales of $31.028 billion missed the expected $32.030 billion by 3.13%. The mining giant delivered a 47% year-on-year increase in profit after tax to $6.7 billion, driven by a 28% rise in underlying EBITDA to $14.8 billion and a 75% surge in free cash flow to $3.8 billion. Chief Executive Simon Trott attributed the strong performance to favorable commodity prices, robust execution across key assets, and accelerating productivity benefits.
The company declared an interim ordinary dividend of $3.4 billion, a 43% increase from the prior period, supported by a 50% payout ratio. Although sales missed the specific consensus target, they still represented a 15% increase from $26.873 billion in the same period last year. Operating cash flow increased 32% to $9.2 billion, reinforcing the balance sheet which saw net debt decrease slightly by 2% to $14.1 billion at June 30, 2026.
Financial Performance Highlights
| Metric | H1 2026 | H1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Sales Revenue | $31,028 million | $26,873 million | +15% |
| Underlying EBITDA | $14,826 million | $11,547 million | +28% |
| Free Cash Flow | $3,834 million | $2,185 million | +75% |
| Profit After Tax | $6,664 million | $4,528 million | +47% |
| Underlying EPS | 421.4 US cents | 296.0 US cents | +42% |
| Interim Dividend Per Share | 211.0 US cents | 148.0 US cents | +43% |
Operational excellence remained a key pillar, with copper equivalent production growing 3% in the first half. Pilbara achieved its highest first-half iron ore production since 2018, while aluminum operations sustained strong performance. Major growth projects are progressing as planned: Simandou achieved first high-grade iron ore sales in April, with mine construction and port infrastructure more than three-quarters complete. In lithium, Rio Tinto secured first production at Fénix 1B and Sal de Vida ahead of schedule, supporting ramp-up toward ~200 ktpa Lithium Carbonate Equivalent capacity by 2028.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between revenue growth (+15%) and EBITDA growth (+28%) indicates significant margin expansion, driven by both volume increases and cost efficiencies. The company’s ability to generate $3.8 billion in free cash flow despite $5.0 billion in capital investment highlights disciplined spending and strong operational leverage. Furthermore, the rise in underlying return on capital employed (ROCE) to 17% from 14% demonstrates improved capital efficiency. The substantial increase in taxes and government royalties to $5.6 billion (from $4.8 billion in H1 2025) reflects the higher profitability base, though it remains a key cost component to monitor.
How might the 3.13% sales miss impact Rio Tinto's full-year revenue guidance, particularly given the divergence between volume growth and price realization?
What are the potential risks to the Simandou project's timeline and cost efficiency as it moves from construction toward full commercial production?
Could the significant increase in taxes and government royalties signal a broader trend of higher fiscal pressure on mining giants in key jurisdictions?




























