Marvell Technology Inc. raised its fiscal 2028 revenue target to $20 billion during its Investor Day, a significant increase from previous guidance and well above Wall Street estimates.

The company also introduced a long-term outlook for fiscal 2031, projecting revenue between $70 billion and $90 billion. These targets align with the CFO's earlier projection that non-GAAP earnings per share would exceed $30 in FY31. The updated guidance reflects the accelerating demand for AI data center connectivity and custom silicon.

Revenue trajectory and investor day updates

The fiscal 2028 goal has been revised upward five times since late 2025. The progression highlights the rapid expansion of Marvell's addressable market in AI infrastructure. Prior to this update, analysts expected approximately $18.2 billion in revenue for FY28, roughly in line with August guidance.

Source: Marvell earnings releases and investor day

For context, Marvell booked $8.2 billion in revenue in the last fiscal year. The new FY28 target implies substantial growth from current levels. Fiscal 2027 revenue remains expected around $12 billion, suggesting about 67% growth in the subsequent year to reach the new FY28 goal.

Long-term targets and market analysis

The fiscal 2031 range represents the widest gap with existing Wall Street models. Piper Sandler had previously modeled about $45 billion in fiscal 2031 revenue. Even the lower bound of Marvell's new range sits more than 50% above that estimate.

To achieve the $70 billion lower bound, revenue would need to grow about 54% annually for five consecutive years. The upper bound of $90 billion implies roughly 61% annual growth. This contrasts with the 42% revenue growth recorded in fiscal 2026.

CEO Matt Murphy stated that Marvell's AI addressable market could reach $400 billion by 2030. The company's strategy relies on two key segments: custom chips for cloud providers like Google and Amazon, and optical connectivity solutions that manage data traffic between processors.

What the Numbers Show

The revision in the fiscal 2028 target from $13 billion in December 2025 to $20 billion in October 2026 represents a 54% increase over ten months. This acceleration outpaces the 42% growth seen in fiscal 2026, indicating that management expects near-term momentum to sustain or exceed recent historical performance. The introduction of the FY31 range, which starts at $70 billion, requires a compound annual growth rate significantly higher than the recent past, signaling a structural shift in Marvell's market position driven by AI infrastructure demands.