ExxonMobil is nearing a preliminary deal to invest in Venezuela's oil fields, potentially signing a memorandum of understanding with state oil company PDVSA this month.

The US oil major is currently negotiating a potential return to the country, which would occur 19 years after its initial exit from the market.

Deal Context

The negotiations signal a renewed interest in Venezuela's energy resources by one of the world's largest publicly traded international oil and gas producers.

• ExxonMobil is close to finalizing a preliminary investment agreement.
• The deal involves operations in Venezuela's oil fields.
• This represents a return to the market 19 years after the company's previous departure.

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) shares rose 1.85% to $159.61 on Monday, outperforming the broader market as traders reacted to a newly disclosed agreement allowing U.S. companies to invest in Venezuela’s oil resources.

The positive movement occurred despite S&P 500 futures falling 0.4%, indicating specific investor interest in the geopolitical development rather than broad market sentiment.

Trump Allows Investment in Venezuela

President Donald Trump disclosed an agreement permitting U.S. companies to participate in developing Venezuela’s oil resources. U.S. firms are expected to invest more than $100 billion in the country.

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan noted that the deal could help offset supply shortages linked to the Iran war. However, he cautioned that bringing Venezuelan oil to market requires multi-billion-dollar investments and will not have an immediate impact on gas prices.

Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez Unveils 25-Year US Oil Deal Targeting

Venezuelan official Delcy Rodriguez stated that a new 25-year energy agreement with the U.S. aims to raise crude production to 1.5 million barrels per day while preserving national sovereignty over resources.

The deal covers 17 strategic oilfields and eight greenfield blocks, compared with current output of about 1.25 million bpd. Rodriguez estimates the agreement could generate about $209 billion for Venezuela over 25 years, based on a $65-per-barrel oil price, with roughly $19 per barrel going directly to the state.

Despite having the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela’s output remains constrained by years of underinvestment, mismanagement and sanctions.

Exxon Earlier Labeled Venezuela ‘Uninvestable’ Without Major Reforms

In January 2026, Exxon CEO Darren Woods referred to Venezuela as currently "uninvestable," citing past instances of the company’s assets being confiscated by the Venezuelan government.

Later that month, a source familiar with Exxon’s strategy told Reuters that the company is prepared to send a technical team to Venezuela within weeks to evaluate oil infrastructure and other assets.

XOM Earnings Preview and Analyst Price Targets

The next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the Oct. 30 (estimated) earnings report.

The stock carries a P/E of 20.2x, which suggests fair valuation relative to peers.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions

The stock carries a Buy rating with an average consensus price forecast of $157. Recent analyst moves include:

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Raises target to $177 on Aug. 19)
• Barclays: Overweight (Lowers target to $177 on Aug. 17)
• TD Cowen: Buy (Raises target to $168 on Aug. 7)

What the Numbers Show

ExxonMobil’s current share price of $159.61 exceeds the average consensus price forecast of $157, suggesting the market is already pricing in a premium relative to the median analyst view. This premium persists despite CEO Darren Woods labeling Venezuela as "uninvestable" in January 2026, indicating that investors are weighing the potential of the new $100 billion investment opportunity against historical governance risks.