ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. head into third-quarter earnings with investors focused on refining margins, crude prices, production growth, and the impact of geopolitical disruptions on their global operations.

The companies saw several significant developments during the third quarter, ranging from major production milestones and new exploration opportunities to expansion plans in Venezuela and other regions and changes to their global energy portfolios.

Chevron: Venezuela, Angola and Hess integration drive growth

Venezuela emerged as one of Chevron's most significant developments during the third quarter. In September, Chevron announced updated agreements with Venezuela that improve the terms of its joint ventures and provide the company with additional acreage in the Orinoco Belt. The agreements support plans for Chevron to invest more than $7 billion over five years and increase production to approximately 600,000 barrels per day, more than double its 2026 production level.

Chevron announced an oil and gas condensate discovery at the 105-4X exploration well in Block 0 offshore Angola in August. Drilled in the Lower Congo Basin, the well encountered a hydrocarbon-bearing interval exceeding 600 meters (2,000 feet) in the Pinda reservoir. That included more than 90 meters (300 feet) of high-quality rock considered potentially productive.

The company also continued to highlight the benefits of its Hess acquisition during the quarter. The integration has strengthened Chevron's position in the Guyana and Bakken shale while creating additional opportunities for cost reductions and operating efficiencies. Management said the company had already achieved its $3 billion structural cost-reduction target ahead of schedule, with further savings opportunities expected from overlapping operations, contract optimization and other efficiencies.

ExxonMobil: LNG and global expansion in focus

ExxonMobil moved forward with its Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique during the quarter, with its Mozambique unit and Area 4 partners awarding about $1.1 billion in pre-investment contracts for Phase 1 of the project. The development represents another step toward advancing the large-scale LNG project and strengthens ExxonMobil's position in the global LNG market.

The company also strengthened its position in the Papua LNG project in Papua New Guinea during the quarter. The project reached several commercial and contractual milestones in September, with ExxonMobil set to hold a 34.1% interest and become operator. Papua LNG is designed to produce 5.6 million tonnes per annum of LNG, primarily for Asian markets. The project's estimated capital cost was reduced to about $14 billion following project optimization and EPC rebidding.

The company's senior vice president of LNG, Peter Clarke, said the company expects the U.S. could account for approximately 30% of global LNG supply by 2030, citing North America's large natural gas resource base and additional liquefaction capacity.

ExxonMobil released its 2026 Global Outlook in September, projecting global electricity demand to rise about 65% by 2050. The company expects electricity's share of global energy consumption to increase to approximately 30% from around 20% currently. It also projects oil demand to remain above 100 million barrels per day through 2050, while natural gas demand is expected to increase approximately 20%.

What the numbers show

Analyst estimates suggest a sharp year-over-year improvement in profitability for both majors, driven largely by higher realized prices rather than volume growth alone. For Exxon, consensus forecasts indicate earnings per share will rise 81% to $3.40, while revenue is projected to grow 11.2% to $94.88 billion. This implies a significant expansion in net margin, assuming costs remain stable relative to revenue gains.

Chevron's forecast shows an even steeper jump in EPS, up 134% to $4.32, on a projected 10.5% revenue increase to $54.94 billion. This disparity suggests that Chevron's downstream and refining segments may be experiencing disproportionate margin leverage compared to its upstream business, or that prior period comparisons were depressed by lower base effects.

Oil prices and geopolitics remain major factors

Beyond company-specific developments, oil-market volatility and geopolitical disruptions were major themes for both ExxonMobil and Chevron during the third quarter.

The conflict involving Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices sharply higher at various points during the quarter, benefiting oil producers through higher realized prices while also creating risks around production, transportation, and refining operations.

Q3 results and market expectations

Both oil majors are expected to report third-quarter results on October 30. For Exxon, analysts expect earnings of $3.40 per share, up from $1.88 a year earlier, while revenue is projected to rise to $94.88 billion from $85.29 billion. The stock carries a Buy rating and an average price forecast of $171.38. Exxon trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 21.1 times.

For Chevron, investors are watching whether refining strength can offset volatility in its upstream business. Analysts expect earnings of $4.32 per share, up from $1.85 a year earlier, while revenue is projected to rise to $54.94 billion from $49.73 billion. The stock carries a Buy rating and an average price forecast of $218.40. Chevron trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 19.9 times, broadly in line with peer valuations.

Price Action: Chevron shares were down 0.90% at $205.23, and ExxonMobil Holdings shares were down 0.99% at $162.19 during premarket trading on Friday.