Constellation Brands Q2 preview: Stock hits 11-year lows ahead of earnings
- STZ shares hit an 11-year low of $110.60, down 20.8% YTD
- Analysts forecast Q2 EPS of $3.57 and revenue of $2.54 billion
- Experts warn against buying during downtrend despite recent earnings beats
- Berkshire Hathaway exited its entire stake in the company in Q2

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Constellation Brands, Inc. shares hit an 11-year low on Monday as investors brace for second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday, October 6.
The stock fell to $110.60, levels last seen in January 2015, and is down 20.8% year-to-date in 2026. Despite the price decline, the company currently offers an annual dividend yield of 3.65%, translating to a quarterly payout of $1.03 per share, or $4.12 annually. This yield provides a baseline for income-focused investors assessing the stock's value ahead of the report.
Dividend income calculations
To generate a monthly dividend income of $500, an investor would need to own approximately 1,456 shares. This calculation is derived from a yearly target of $6,000 ($500 x 12 months) divided by the annual dividend of $4.12. At current price levels, this position requires an investment of roughly $164,339.
For a more conservative goal of $100 monthly ($1,200 annually), the requirement drops to 291 shares, or an investment of approximately $32,845.
It is important to note that dividend yields fluctuate based on both stock price movements and changes in the dividend payment itself. If the stock price rises while the dividend remains constant, the yield decreases. Conversely, if the company increases its dividend payment, the yield rises even if the share price stays flat.
Price action and analyst estimates
Constellation Brands shares closed at $113.82 on Monday, up 0.84%, after hitting the intraday low of $110.60. Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of $3.57 per share, down from $3.63 per share a year ago. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $2.54 billion, compared to $2.48 billion reported last year.
| Metric | Estimate | Prior Year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.57 | $3.63 | -1.7% |
| Revenue | $2.54 billion | $2.48 billion | +2.4% |
On June 30, the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter financial results and raised its FY27 GAAP EPS guidance. The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in four straight quarters and in eight of the last 10 quarters overall. Similarly, it has beaten EPS estimates in four straight quarters and nine of the last 10.
Expert warnings and analyst ratings
Freedom Capital Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods noted that while the stock rallied after five of the past six earnings reports, current technicals are in "uncharted territory." Woods warned that "trying to catch a falling knife is a dangerous proposition" given the downtrend. He highlighted relief targets at $121 and $127, but warned of potential downside to $100 if the $111 support level breaks.
Recent analyst actions reflect mixed sentiment on price targets:
- Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $170 to $140
- RBC Capital: Maintained Outperform rating, with price target of $185
- JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $166 to $133
- UBS: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $168 to $145
Key items to watch
Investors are watching whether demand for Modelo and Corona has improved following a difficult stretch for beer sales. Constellation Brands, which imports beer to the U.S., has been impacted by tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway completely exited its stake in the alcohol company in the second quarter, removing a major institutional holder.
What the numbers show
A divergence exists between top-line growth and bottom-line expectations. While revenue is projected to rise 2.4% to $2.54 billion, EPS is forecast to decline 1.7% to $3.57. This suggests that despite higher sales, margin pressures or increased costs may be impacting profitability per share in the upcoming quarter. Furthermore, the stock's 20.8% year-to-date decline contrasts sharply with its consistent earnings beats, indicating that market concerns regarding demand trends and macroeconomic headwinds are outweighing operational performance metrics.
How might the complete exit of Berkshire Hathaway's stake influence future institutional ownership trends and stock volatility for Constellation Brands?
Will potential easing of tariffs on Mexican imports be sufficient to restore Modelo and Corona demand growth in the upcoming fiscal quarters?
Could the divergence between rising revenue and declining EPS indicate a structural shift in Constellation Brands' cost management or pricing power?

































