Silver prices rallied sharply by ₹15,000 to hit a lifetime high of ₹2,65,000 per kg in the national capital on Monday, while gold advanced to a fresh record of ₹1,44,600 per 10 grams, mirroring strong gains in the global markets. The precious metals surge reflects growing investor appetite for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainties.

Domestic Market Performance

According to the All India Sarafa Association, both precious metals recorded significant gains during Monday's trading session:

All prices are inclusive of taxes, with gold representing 99.9% purity. Silver's 6% surge marked a particularly strong performance, demonstrating the metal's higher volatility compared to gold.

International Market Dynamics

The domestic rally was supported by robust gains in international markets, where both metals achieved new record levels:

Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, noted that "Gold has responded positively, and jumped to the $4,600 per ounce level, while silver has seen an even sharper surge to $84 per ounce, highlighting its higher beta in risk-sensitive environments."

Key Market Drivers

Several factors contributed to the precious metals rally, creating a confluence of supportive conditions:

Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating unrest in Iran and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict have heightened safe-haven demand. Trump has indicated consideration of military options against Iran following anti-government protests, asserting that Tehran had crossed a "red line."

Federal Reserve Uncertainty: Growing expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts have supported bullion prices. Additionally, reports of a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, weighing on the US dollar.

Market Volatility: Rising volatility in global equity markets has increased demand for precious metals as portfolio diversifiers.

Expert Analysis

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, explained that "Silver has surged to fresh record highs, breaching the $84 per ounce, driven by a mix of rising geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates further."

Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst for Commodities at HDFC Securities, highlighted how "the probe weighed on the US dollar, lending further support to bullion prices."

Market Outlook

The upcoming economic calendar presents several key events that could influence precious metals pricing. Chainani noted that "This week's economic calendar is packed, with the spotlight on the US inflation and consumer indicators. The December CPI report due on Tuesday will be important, as it may be the first inflation print unaffected by the government shutdown."

Garg emphasized that "the broader outlook for precious metals remains positive amid rising volatility in global equity markets, persistent geopolitical tensions, and sustained demand for safe-haven assets."

Gold and silver prices continue their relentless climb with global uncertainty providing strong support for the precious metals rally. Surendra Mehta, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, projects ambitious price targets driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and policy-related concerns.

Bullish Price Projections

Mehta has set clear targets for both precious metals, expressing confidence in their continued upward momentum. His analysis points to multiple factors supporting these projections, including regional tensions and economic uncertainties.

Key Market Drivers

The precious metals rally stems from multiple global factors creating sustained demand pressure. Mehta identifies rising tensions in Iran, Venezuela, and Greenland as primary geopolitical catalysts. Additional support comes from weak and mixed US job data, higher planned tariffs by the US government, and recent politically sensitive developments related to the US Federal Reserve.

Gold is attracting significant buying interest through exchange-traded funds, including strong inflows from India. Silver demonstrates heavy physical demand across global markets, particularly in China and Dubai, where supply tightness is evident through premium pricing.

Regional Premium Indicators

Global silver markets are showing clear signs of supply constraints through premium pricing in key trading hubs:

Indian Market Dynamics

Domestic Indian prices reflect the global strength in precious metals, with significant premiums over international benchmarks. MCX gold trades approximately ₹1,200.00 higher than global levels, while silver commands nearly ₹6,000.00 premium. In dollar terms, gold shows strength of around $40.00, with silver up $2.50-3.00 compared to global benchmarks.

Mehta emphasizes that India remains a price taker rather than price discoverer in global gold and silver markets, limiting the country's influence on international pricing dynamics.

Market Outlook and Strategy

Mehta does not anticipate sharp corrections in precious metals prices, suggesting any pullbacks will be limited. He advises that short-term price dips should be viewed as buying opportunities rather than selling triggers. The expert believes meaningful price cooling requires clarity on US policy direction, while China's restrictions on silver exports and Russia's stance on oil and gold holdings maintain supply-side concerns.

According to Mehta, precious metals will likely remain firm as long as major global powers including China, Russia, and the US fail to find common ground on key economic and geopolitical issues. This fundamental backdrop supports his bullish outlook and reinforces the strategic value of treating market dips as accumulation opportunities.