Oil prices extended gains on Monday as intensifying protests in Iran sparked growing concerns about potential supply disruptions from the major OPEC producer. The civil unrest has created significant uncertainty in global energy markets, with analysts warning of substantial risks to Iranian oil exports.

Oil Price Performance

Global crude benchmarks posted solid gains during Monday trading, building on strong momentum from the previous week.

Both contracts achieved their biggest weekly rise since October, climbing more than 3% last week as Iran's clerical establishment intensified its crackdown on the largest demonstrations since 2022.

Iran Supply Disruption Risks

The ongoing civil unrest in Iran has created significant concerns about oil supply stability. The protests have resulted in substantial casualties, with a rights group reporting more than 500 deaths as of Sunday. The situation has drawn international attention, with U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly threatening intervention if force is used against protesters.

Trump is expected to meet with senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options regarding Iran, according to a U.S. official who spoke to Reuters on Sunday. The political tensions have raised fears about Iran's oil production capacity.

ANZ analysts led by Daniel Hynes noted in their research that "there have also been calls for workers in the oil industry to down tools amid the protests." They emphasized that "the situation puts at least 1.9 million barrels per day of oil exports at risk of disruption."

Venezuela Oil Export Resumption

While Iranian supply concerns support oil prices, developments in Venezuela are providing some counterbalance to potential price increases. Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro.

Trump announced last week that the government in Caracas is set to transfer as much as 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the United States. This development has triggered intense activity among oil companies seeking to establish operations for safe crude shipment from Venezuelan facilities.

Four sources familiar with the operations reported that companies are racing to find tankers and assemble logistics for shipping crude safely from vessels and Venezuela's deteriorated port infrastructure. Trading company Trafigura indicated during a White House meeting on Friday that its first vessel should begin loading within the next week.

Market Outlook

The oil market currently faces competing forces, with Iranian supply disruption risks supporting prices while Venezuelan export resumption provides potential supply relief. The situation remains fluid as geopolitical developments continue to influence global energy markets and trading sentiment.

Oil prices continued their upward trajectory on Monday as escalating civil unrest in Iran heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions from one of OPEC's key producers. The market volatility reflects growing geopolitical tensions that could significantly impact global energy supplies.

Current Price Movements

The latest trading session showed sustained momentum in crude oil markets:

Both contracts demonstrated strong weekly performance, rising more than 3% to secure their biggest weekly gains since October. The price increases occurred by 0006 GMT on Monday, continuing the bullish trend established in the previous trading week.

Iran Crisis Escalates Supply Concerns

The intensifying protests in Iran have created significant market anxiety about potential oil supply disruptions. Iran's clerical establishment has escalated its crackdown on the largest demonstrations witnessed since 2022, with the civil unrest resulting in more than 500 deaths according to rights groups.

U.S. President Trump has issued repeated warnings about potential intervention if force continues to be used against protesters. A U.S. official confirmed that the president is scheduled to meet with senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss various options regarding Iran.

ANZ analysts, led by Daniel Hynes, highlighted the severity of the situation in their market note: "There have also been calls for workers in the oil india industry to down tools amid the protests. The situation puts at least 1.9 million barrels per day of oil exports at risk of disruption."

Venezuela Developments Limit Price Gains

While Iranian supply concerns drive prices higher, developments in Venezuela are providing a counterbalancing effect on market sentiment. Following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports in the near term.

Trump announced last week that the government in Caracas is prepared to transfer up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. This development has triggered intense activity among oil companies as they scramble to secure tankers and establish operational frameworks for safely shipping crude from Venezuelan vessels and ports.

Industry Response and Logistics

The anticipated resumption of Venezuelan oil exports has sparked a competitive race among energy companies to position themselves for the opportunity. Four sources familiar with the operations confirmed that companies are actively working to assemble the necessary infrastructure and logistics capabilities.

Trafigura, a major commodity trading company, provided an update during a White House meeting on Friday, indicating that their first vessel should begin loading operations within the next week. This timeline suggests that Venezuelan oil could return to international markets relatively quickly, potentially offsetting some of the supply concerns related to Iran.

Market Outlook

The current oil market dynamics reflect the complex interplay between geopolitical risks and supply adjustments. While Iranian supply disruptions pose a significant threat to global oil availability, the potential return of Venezuelan crude provides a stabilizing factor that is preventing more dramatic price increases. Market participants continue to monitor both situations closely as they assess the overall impact on global energy supplies.