Prediction market platform Kalshi plans to file for perpetual contracts on US crude oil, according to a source.

The filing would allow the exchange to offer continuous trading instruments linked to crude oil prices, expanding its product suite beyond existing prediction markets.

Market Expansion

Kalshi’s entry into commodity-linked perpetuals marks a strategic shift toward traditional financial assets. The move aligns with broader industry trends of integrating speculative instruments with underlying physical commodities.

No specific timeline or regulatory approval status was disclosed in the report.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Middle East conflict have boosted realized crude prices for major US oil producers. Companies insulated from direct operational risks are capturing higher margins and free cash flow.

The conflict, involving US and Israeli military operations against Iran since Feb. 28, has constrained a waterway carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. This bottleneck is keeping crude prices elevated, creating an earnings windfall for producers far from the battlefield.

Earnings Performance by Producer

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) posted a worldwide realized oil price of $96.78 per barrel, up 38% quarter-over-quarter. This price increase drove adjusted EPS to $2.40, up from $0.39 a year ago, and generated roughly $3 billion in free cash flow. CFO Sunil Mathew noted that the Middle East situation remains fluid, posing risks to international volumes.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) realized $62.33 per barrel, up 36% year-over-year, despite its Qatar LNG facility being largely shut in during the quarter. CEO Ryan Lance described the Strait bottleneck as a connectivity problem rather than a resource issue, stating that gas-market headwinds have become tailwinds.

EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) reported record adjusted EPS of $5.07 and $2.8 billion in free cash flow. The company has minimal direct war exposure aside from Bahrain, where COO Jeffrey Leitzell said operations have been intermittent due to the ongoing conflict.

Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG) saw its realized oil price rise to $96.82 per barrel from $73.47 in the first quarter. With essentially zero Middle East production, the company benefited purely from the price effect. It used the resulting cash to push output past 1 million barrels per day and double its buyback authorization to $16 billion.

Hibiscus Petroleum (OTC: HIBPF) is capturing an outright premium to Brent. Analysts estimated a roughly 9.6% realized premium in the previous quarter, with management guiding toward 13%-18%. April-May offtakes averaged around $120 per barrel.

What the Numbers Show

The data reveals a divergence between operational risk and financial reward. While companies with assets in the conflict zone face intermittent operations, those with zero or minimal exposure, such as Diamondback Energy, are seeing sharp sequential jumps in realized prices without operational drag. Diamondback’s realized price rose to $96.82 per barrel from $73.47 in the first quarter, highlighting how connectivity constraints benefit producers insulated from the Strait.

Market Reaction and Outlook

Stocks of these producers have surged since the start of the Iran war. Year-to-date, ConocoPhillips has risen about 45%, EOG Resources jumped around 43%, Occidental Petroleum climbed nearly 43.82%, and Diamondback Energy surged about 35% on US stock exchanges. Hibiscus Petroleum has soared about 50% on the Malaysian exchange.

The Energy Information Administration does not expect Middle East oil output to fully normalize until early 2027, suggesting prolonged pricing support for these producers.