Gold prices began 2026 with strong momentum on Thursday, rising ₹640 to ₹1,38,340 per 10 grams in the national capital, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The yellow metal of 99.9% purity had previously closed at ₹1,37,700 per 10 grams on Wednesday. In contrast, silver prices extended their losing streak for the second consecutive day, declining ₹1,600 to ₹2,37,400 per kilogram from the previous close of ₹2,39,000 per kg.

Exceptional 2025 Performance

Both precious metals delivered outstanding returns during 2025, marking one of their strongest annual performances in recent years.

Silver significantly outperformed gold with its remarkable surge of approximately 164%, while gold's 73.45% gain also represented substantial appreciation for investors.

International Market Movements

In international markets, spot gold faced pressure and slipped $28, or 0.65%, to close at $4,310.89 per ounce on Wednesday. Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, attributed this decline to rebounding US yields. "On the last trading day of the year 2025, spot gold closed with a loss at $4,310 per ounce as US yields rebounded," Singh noted, adding that international gold prices are expected to remain range-bound in the short term.

2026 Market Outlook

Market experts have identified several key factors that will likely influence precious metal prices throughout 2026. Rahul Kalantri, Vice-President of Commodities at Mehta Equities, outlined the primary drivers expected to shape the market:

• US Federal Reserve interest rate expectations
• Dollar strength or weakness
• Macroeconomic and monetary policy developments
• Geopolitical factors

Kalantri emphasized that continued central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund flows will provide structural support to precious metals. He noted that episodes of geopolitical or financial market stress will boost safe-haven demand for these assets.

Supply-Side Considerations

According to market experts, China's new curbs on silver exports are expected to significantly influence global supply dynamics and guide bullion prices in the near term. This development adds another layer of complexity to the precious metals market as supply constraints could potentially support price levels.

"Together, these factors will determine whether bullion stays near record highs or experiences volatility through the year," Kalantri concluded, highlighting the multiple variables that investors will need to monitor as the precious metals market navigates 2026.

Precious metals began 2026 with contrasting performances as silver extended its remarkable rally while gold opened largely flat on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). The divergent price action reflects ongoing supply-demand dynamics and varying market sentiments for the two metals.

Silver Maintains Strong Momentum

Silver prices demonstrated continued strength as March futures contracts surged at the opening on January 1. The white metal's performance significantly outpaced gold, building on exceptional gains from the previous year.

The silver rally follows an extraordinary performance in 2025, with prices having jumped by more than 150% during the year. This exceptional run has been driven by tight supply conditions, rising demand, and a supportive interest rate environment.

Chinese Export Restrictions Impact

Market participants are factoring in the impact of Chinese export restrictions that came into effect on January 1, which are expected to influence silver prices during 2026. According to Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, this development has "fueled a record rally in silver," along with renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela.

The export restrictions represent a significant supply-side factor that traders are monitoring closely as they assess the potential trajectory for silver prices in the coming months.

Gold Outlook Remains Supportive

Despite the modest opening performance, gold continues to find support from expectations that real yields may remain constrained even as inflation moderates. Inderbir Singh Jolly of PL Wealth noted that such an environment has historically been supportive for gold prices.

Jolly added that while some consolidation is natural after a sharp run-up, the medium-term outlook remains positive, with gold expected to continue playing a critical stabilizing role in diversified portfolios heading into 2026.

Physical Market Rates

Physical gold prices across major Indian cities reflected the current market conditions on January 1:

The precious metals market's mixed start to 2026 reflects the complex interplay of supply constraints, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy expectations that continue to shape investor sentiment in both gold and silver.