GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan has warned that Iran’s demands for concessions from the U.S. regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz risk reversing recent declines in oil and gas prices. Although live data indicated the national average gasoline price in the U.S. had fallen below $4/gallon, De Haan stated on X on August 9, 2026, that there is a "rising risk of prices eventually climbing again" due to growing doubt about the waterway's reopening. This geopolitical tension introduces significant volatility risk for energy markets, potentially offsetting near-term price relief for consumers and impacting broader commodity valuations.

Geopolitical Tensions and Price Risks

De Haan highlighted that Iran is "trying to win new concessions," which casts a shadow of uncertainty over any agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Sunday that the U.S. must meet specific demands for the strait to reopen. These demands include compensation for damages sustained from U.S. attacks, an end to sanctions and military threats against Iran, and the removal of a U.S. naval blockade.

Despite the national average falling below $4/gallon based on GasBuddy live data, data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) showed prices remained above the threshold on Sunday, with the national average at $4.0121/gallon. Diesel prices also declined during this period. The divergence in data sources underscores the sensitivity of retail fuel prices to immediate market conditions and reporting methodologies.

Oil Market Movements

Oil prices reacted to the ongoing tensions, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surging 0.59% to $78.64/bbl at the time of writing. Brent crude oil reported a 0.83% uptick to $84.24/bbl. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) surged 2.18% to $120.55 during overnight trading on Friday, reflecting investor sentiment toward potential supply disruptions or prolonged geopolitical friction.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Outlook

De Haan addressed the status of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), stating that the drawdown "will end sometime in September." He clarified that while the reserve could decline slightly more, it "should remain above ~275 million barrels." De Haan noted that a previously authorized release of 172 million barrels is nearing completion. This projection suggests that the U.S. government is stabilizing its strategic reserves after a period of significant depletion, which may influence future supply dynamics and market expectations for government intervention in oil prices.

Strait of Hormuz Negotiations

Earlier comments from De Haan suggested that a proposed agreement between Oman and Iran could dim hopes for lower oil prices. Reports indicated Iran was seeking a 5% to 7% toll on ships traversing the waterway, while Oman sought a 3% toll. These conflicting positions highlight the complexity of reaching a consensus on toll structures, which directly impacts shipping costs and global oil supply logistics. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s former Counterterrorism Chief Joe Kent reiterated his stance that the U.S. should declare victory over Iran and leave the region, adding another layer of political discourse to the evolving situation.

The global oil market faces a looming structural supply shortage in 2029 and 2030, driven by chronic underinvestment rather than geopolitical disruptions alone, according to veteran natural-resource investor Rick Rule. While potential armistices in the Strait of Hormuz may stabilize spot prices temporarily, Rule argues they cannot address the fundamental deficit of barrels that have not been funded for production. The current disruption serves as a "foretaste" of a more severe crisis when sustained capital expenditure fails to match production needs.

Rule’s research indicates that the global oil and gas industry, including state-owned producers, has underinvested in sustaining capital by more than $1 billion a day. This capital shortfall is exacerbated by a shift in corporate strategy toward shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, which Rule describes as cannibalizing the productive base required for future distributions. High financing costs and narratives suggesting a permanent peak in oil demand have further restricted long-dated development capital, even as production systems require continual replenishment.

The Depletion Treadmill and Rising Costs

The investment gap is particularly acute in US shale, where tight-oil wells deliver much of their net present value within the first 18 months. Without timely recompletions and fresh drilling, output declines faster than from conventional reservoirs. Enverus Intelligence Research highlights that the average breakeven for new US shale wells stands at $70 a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, already above recent spot prices.

As core inventory depletes, the industry is moving toward more speculative Tier-2 and Tier-3 drilling locations. Enverus projects the marginal breakeven estimate will rise to $95 by 2035. Alex Ljubojevic, director at Enverus, notes that North America’s share of incremental global consumption growth will drop below 50% in the next decade, down from more than 100% in the previous one.

Positioning for the Shift

Rule advises favoring operators that resist liquidation logic and maintain robust capital allocation. Exxon Mobil is cited as a primary example due to its integrated model and significant Guyana discovery. Devon Energy’s combination with Coterra creates interlocking leases supporting longer laterals, while EQT’s northeastern gas infrastructure provides leverage against tightening gas markets.

In Canada, Canadian Natural Resources and Tourmaline offer long-life assets but trade at discounts reflecting political risk. Freehold Royalties presents an alternative with royalty income that rises with volumes and prices without absorbing drilling inflation or sustaining-capital demands directly.