Crude oil prices held steady on Hyperliquid as investors weighed the impact of the ongoing US-Iran stalemate. Brent, the global benchmark, rose to $92.90, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $86.50. Both benchmarks have jumped by over 32% from their July lows.

Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concerns

Crude oil may continue rising as Iran reportedly considers escalating tensions. President Donald Trump plans additional sanctions against the country, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to unveil the new sanctions package on Monday.

According to Bloomberg, Iranians are considering military escalation to punish the US and its allies. Reports suggest the US is running out of ammunition and conditions on USS Lincoln have deteriorated. As a result, IRGC officials believe they are better positioned to escalate.

An escalation would be highly bullish for crude oil prices. In addition to blocking the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Iranians may boost attacks against oil and gas infrastructure in the region. Iran is also considering attacks against key US interests, including subsea internet cables passing through the Strait.

These events come at a time when oil inventories in key countries like the United States, China, South Korea, and Japan continue to dwindle. In the US, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has dropped to the lowest levels in decades.

Despite these risks, oil prices have remained below the year-to-date high because of weak Chinese demand. Data show that millions of barrels of oil are passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between rising geopolitical premiums and weak Chinese demand highlights a market balancing supply-side fears against demand-side constraints. While inventory levels in major economies are at multi-decade lows, the continued flow of millions of barrels through the Strait of Hormuz suggests that immediate physical supply disruptions have not yet materialized, capping price upside despite the 32% jump from July lows.

Technical Outlook

The daily chart shows that Brent has been in an uptrend in the past few days and is now attempting to fill the fair value gap formed on July 27.

However, there are signs that the rally is nearing the exhaustion level. The Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped to 22.34 from the July high of 40. A drop in ADX is a sign that the uptrend is losing momentum.

Crude oil has also formed a rising wedge pattern, which is made up of two ascending and converging trendlines. This pattern often leads to a bearish reversal.

Therefore, oil may see a bearish reversal, potentially retreating to the 200-day moving average of $84. However, with the US-Iran conflict poised to escalate, and given the existing fair value gap, there is a possibility it could rebound past $100.

JSV Global founder Jason Venturelli argues that relying on single-point forecasts for fuel budgeting has become a structural liability for shippers and energy buyers following historic market volatility.

The warning comes after military action affecting Iran triggered what researchers describe as the largest geopolitical oil supply disruption on record. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply moves, was effectively closed to shipping in March. This closure caused global oil supply to fall by more than 10 million barrels a day, the largest single-month disruption recorded.

Market Impact and Price Surge

WTI crude surged nearly 98% from its start-of-year level, touching a 46-month high above $112 a barrel by the second quarter. Venturelli noted that organizations building their 2026 budgets on a single crude number were already behind before the year started.

Refined products faced disproportionate shocks. Jet fuel crack spreads spiked to more than four times their historical norm in weeks. Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) prices doubled and crossed $1,000 a tonne. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects full-year 2026 jet fuel prices will average around $152 a barrel, roughly 70% above 2025 levels.

Fraud Risks Amid Volatility

Venturelli highlighted a resurgence in commodity trading fraud targeting buyers desperate to lock in fuel below market rates. He cited unsolicited cargo offers for EN590 diesel and heavy fuel oil quoted at prices inconsistent with the Platts benchmark. These offers often paired unrealistic pricing with requests for upfront fees or exotic payment instruments.

"Real fuel moves through established refiners, brokers, and verified banking channels," Venturelli said. "If a cargo offer sounds too good to be true against a backdrop like this one, it is."

Outlook for 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects disruptions through Hormuz to persist through August, with full normalization not anticipated until early 2027. Analysts project prices may ease toward the $69 range in 2027 as inventories rebuild. However, Venturelli cautioned that organizations must build hedges and real-time geopolitical awareness into their planning rather than betting on specific price points.