Analyst sees US gas prices falling below $4/gallon by Labor Day

1 min read | Published on 27 Aug 2026, 10:07 AM |Updated on 27 Aug 2026, 10:07 AM

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Key Highlights

Analyst Patrick De Haan predicts US national average gas prices could fall below $4/gallon by Labor Day
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped below $80/bbl while Brent traded at $87.48/bbl
National average gasoline price surged to $4.1014/gallon with diesel at $5.6230/gallon
Early shift to winter gasoline blends supported by EPA waiver from Trump administration
Geopolitical tensions in Iran and political criticism over oil holdings persist

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan predicts the US national average gasoline price could drop below $4/gallon by Labor Day. This potential decline comes as West Texas Intermediate crude falls below $80/bbl and states shift to winter blends early.

Market Dynamics

De Haan noted on X that WTI crude had dipped below $80/bbl. He highlighted that some states are switching to winter gasoline weeks earlier than usual following an Environmental Protection Agency waiver from the Donald Trump administration.

"We likely have enough to see the national average fall below $4/gal by Labor Day," De Haan stated. However, he cautioned that prices during this period "may still be the most expensive ever" for this time of year.

Current Price Levels

At press time, WTI crude traded at $81.84/bbl, while Brent crude stood at $87.48/bbl. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) slipped 0.09% to $127.23 in overnight trading.

According to American Automobile Association data, the national average gasoline price surged to $4.1014/gallon on Wednesday. Diesel averaged $5.6230/gallon.

Geopolitical Context

The outlook unfolds against backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty involving Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Trump administration has imposed economic restrictions on Iran, which Tehran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei described as "systemic bullying" violating international law.

Iran’s Security Chief previously warned that participating countries would face an "act of war" and vowed no oil would flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

Political Criticism

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) criticized President Trump for profiting from the Iran conflict, citing his multi-million dollar holdings in ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX).

Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) also questioned Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz was free of mines, referencing an earlier contradictory statement by the President.

How might the early transition to winter gasoline blends impact refinery margins and inventory levels for the remainder of the year?

What is the potential market reaction if Iran follows through on threats to disrupt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite current price declines?

Could the EPA waiver for winter blends set a precedent for future regulatory flexibility, and how might this affect long-term fuel pricing strategies?