Aluminium Prices Rally 23% in 2025 as Supply Constraints Drive Market Optimism
Domestic aluminium prices declined 1.3% to ₹294.60 per kg on MCX amid profit booking, while global markets showed positive momentum with Shanghai contracts gaining 2.7%. The metal has rallied 23% this year, reaching three-year highs due to supply constraints including South32's Mozal smelter shutdown by March 2026 and China's production control measures. Religare analyst forecasts continued uptrend toward ₹308-310 levels, with strong support at ₹280-283, as tight supply fundamentals and growing demand from EVs and infrastructure sectors support prices through early 2026.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Domestic aluminium prices experienced mixed trading patterns on Wednesday, declining 1.3% intraday to hit a low of ₹294.60 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) amid profit booking activities. This movement contrasted sharply with global aluminium markets, where peers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange maintained positive momentum throughout the trading session.
Current Market Performance
January aluminium futures on MCX were trading near the ₹296.00 per kg mark during the session. Meanwhile, international markets showed stronger performance:
| Exchange | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Futures Exchange | CNY 22,950 per mt | +2.70% |
| London Metal Exchange (3-month) | $2,989 per mt | +0.08% |
| MCX (January futures) | ₹296.00 per kg | Near current levels |
Aluminium prices have demonstrated remarkable strength this year, rallying nearly 23% amid positive sentiment for the metal sector driven by persistent demand-supply risks and structural market imbalances.
Supply Constraints Drive Market Optimism
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking, noted that aluminium futures are hovering near the $2,950 per tonne mark in the UK, representing their highest levels in over three years. The metal has posted an impressive 18% increase over the previous year, supported by multiple supply-side developments.
A significant market catalyst emerged from South32 Limited, the major mining and metals company headquartered in Perth, Western Australia. The company announced that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March 2026 due to its inability to secure a new power agreement. This shutdown is expected to further shrink global aluminium supplies next year, intensifying concerns over an already under-supplied market.
China's Production Control Measures
China, the world's largest aluminium producer, has reiterated its commitment to controlling overcapacity in metal production to manage deflationary pressures affecting manufacturers. The country is set to breach its 45 million tonne output cap this year and is actively discouraging smelters from expanding production capacity in 2026.
These production control measures from the dominant global supplier are expected to maintain tight supply conditions and support price levels across international markets.
Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
From a technical perspective, aluminium on MCX has witnessed a healthy correction after testing a high of ₹315.15. The broader technical framework clearly indicates continuation of the upward trend in the coming weeks, with prices trading significantly above key exponential moving averages and the upper Bollinger Band level.
| Technical Parameter | Level/Target |
|---|---|
| Upside Target | ₹308.00 - ₹310.00 |
| Support Base | ₹280.00 - ₹283.00 |
| Buy Above | ₹290.00 |
| Stop Loss | Below ₹280.00 |
Mishra recommends looking for stability above ₹290.00 for buying opportunities, with target objectives of ₹305.00 to ₹308.00 and maintaining stop loss levels below ₹280.00.
2026 Market Outlook
The broader market landscape indicates that tighter supply fundamentals will likely keep aluminium prices elevated through early 2026, with markets potentially transitioning into deficit conditions. Key bullish price drivers include smelter risks, low inventory levels, and structural supply constraints.
Demand growth remains consistent across multiple sectors including electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, packaging, and electrification projects. Limited availability in London Metal Exchange warehouses provides another positive indicator for the metal's price trajectory.
Unless weaker macroeconomic cycles dominate market sentiment or adverse tariff impacts and trade policy shifts emerge, the primary price outlook remains positive for aluminium through the first half of 2026.
Historical Stock Returns for Golkonda Aluminium
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4.84% | +39.78% | +41.11% | -11.86% | -24.75% | +154.28% |




























