India's capital markets concluded December 2025 with divergent performance across segments, as retail equity trading activity moderated while systematic investment plans (SIPs) and commodity markets achieved record-breaking volumes. According to Motilal Oswal's latest report, this contrasting pattern reflects evolving investor behavior and participation dynamics in the country's financial markets.

Retail Equity Trading Shows Sequential Decline

The equity trading segment experienced a broad-based slowdown in December 2025, despite total Average Daily Turnover (ADTO) remaining flat month-on-month. Key performance metrics revealed underlying weakness across multiple segments:

In terms of market share dynamics, NSE maintained its dominant position in the cash segment with a 93.00% share. BSE's performance in the derivatives space showed mixed results, with its notional turnover market share declining to 42.60% from 43.50% in November, while its premium turnover share improved to 27.70% from 25.90%.

SIP Inflows Reach Record Heights

Despite the equity trading slowdown, the mutual fund industry demonstrated remarkable resilience through systematic investment plans. SIP flows achieved a new milestone, reaching ₹310.00 billion in December 2025, representing a significant increase from ₹294.00 billion recorded in November.

Motilal Oswal noted that stable mutual fund flows and the strong SIP trajectory will benefit asset management companies going forward, providing a solid foundation for sustained growth in the sector.

Commodity Trading Volumes Surge to New Peaks

The commodity derivatives segment emerged as December's standout performer, with MCX volumes demonstrating exceptional growth across multiple categories. Total commodity volumes rose 20.00% month-on-month to ₹178.60 trillion, driven by robust activity in both options and futures segments.

Specific commodity categories showed varying performance levels:

• Base Metals ADTO: Jumped 290.00% month-on-month
• Bullion Options: Rose 8.00% month-on-month
• Energy Options: Increased 2.00% month-on-month

The premium-to-notional turnover ratio improved to approximately 1.10% in December from 0.96% in November, indicating enhanced market depth and participation in the commodity derivatives segment.

Primary Market Activity and Investor Base Expansion

The primary market maintained strong momentum throughout December 2025, with 11 initial public offerings successfully raising ₹219.00 billion. This continued the robust IPO activity witnessed in previous months, reflecting sustained corporate fundraising appetite and investor interest.

Demat account additions showed improvement, rising to 3.20 million in December from 2.70 million in November. The total demat account base reached 216.00 million, marking a 17.00% year-on-year growth rate. CDSL maintained its market leadership with an 80.00% market share in demat account services.

Market Outlook and Implications

The December 2025 performance highlights the evolving nature of India's capital markets, with investors diversifying their participation across different asset classes and investment vehicles. While retail equity trading experienced a temporary moderation, the record-breaking SIP flows and surging commodity volumes demonstrate sustained investor engagement through alternative market channels. Motilal Oswal emphasized that the combination of stable fund flows, robust IPO activity, and record commodity volumes positions capital market intermediaries favorably for continued growth.

India is positioned for sustained economic transformation with GDP growth projected at 6.6% by FY2027, according to Dun & Bradstreet's India 2026 report. The outlook emphasises a shift from traditional growth models to technology-driven, diversified expansion across artificial intelligence, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing sectors.

Macroeconomic Foundation Supports Growth Trajectory

The report projects India's growth momentum will remain resilient through FY2026, anchored by consumption as the primary engine. Policy support, festive demand, and gradual normalisation in rural spending are expected to sustain household consumption, while continued public capital expenditure will drive investment across infrastructure and manufacturing sectors.

Inflation is projected to remain controlled at approximately 3.1% in 2026, enabling calibrated policy easing while maintaining mildly positive real interest rates. The current account deficit is expected to stay near 1% of GDP, supported by services exports and remittances, with robust foreign exchange reserves providing protection against external headwinds.

Manufacturing Evolution Towards Value Creation

Dun & Bradstreet identifies a fundamental shift in India's manufacturing approach from volume-driven models to technology-focused value creation. The report projects manufacturing's share of GDP could reach the mid-20s percentage range over the next decade, driven by strategic sector development.

Defence manufacturing, semiconductor design and packaging, and electronics clusters supported by Production Linked Incentive schemes are leading this transformation. The spatial distribution of manufacturing activity is expanding beyond traditional centres, with Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities emerging as investment destinations through industrial corridors and logistics infrastructure development.

Artificial Intelligence as Economic Growth Engine

The report positions artificial intelligence as a core productivity driver, moving beyond pilot projects to platform-scale adoption. India's digital economy is projected to grow at nearly twice the rate of the overall economy, with AI alone potentially adding $600 billion to GDP over the next decade.

Global Capability Centres are evolving into innovation hubs, while Digital Public Infrastructure integration accelerates AI adoption across sectors. Major cities including Mumbai, Chennai, and Hyderabad are developing as significant data centre clusters supporting this digital transformation.

Clean Energy and Green Hydrogen Development

Green hydrogen emerges as a strategic platform for industrial decarbonisation and energy security enhancement. The report indicates that focus during 2026-28 will shift towards cost reduction through localisation and renewable energy integration, building on existing mission architecture and pilot projects.

Port-based infrastructure development for ammonia and methanol, combined with clear offtake pathways in refining, fertilisers, steel, and shipping sectors, is expected to establish commercial viability for green hydrogen. This development could reduce import dependency, strengthen external balances, and position India as a clean technology export hub.

Emerging Consumption and Service Sectors

Tourism is gaining strategic importance as preferences shift towards wellness, spiritual, and experiential offerings. Spiritual tourism currently accounts for approximately 60% of domestic trips, with this share expected to grow through 2026. Infrastructure investments in destination development, multimodal connectivity, and digital tools including AR and VR-enabled planning are enhancing both domestic and inbound tourism potential.

Quick commerce represents another rapidly evolving sector, with dark stores, micro-fulfilment centres, and digital payment infrastructure transforming retail economics from scale-focused to speed-optimised models. The anticipated rollout of Beyond Visual Line of Sight drone regulations in 2026 could further revolutionise last-mile logistics, particularly for medical and essential goods delivery.

Demographic and Infrastructure Drivers

India's demographic transition is creating substantial opportunities in the silver economy, encompassing senior living, assisted care, and home-based healthcare services. The senior population is projected to exceed 347 million by 2050, generating significant market opportunities particularly in southern and western urban areas.

The maritime sector supports long-term growth through blue economy initiatives, with India's maritime trade volume projected to exceed 7,100 million metric tonnes annually by 2047. This growth will be supported by green port infrastructure, digital logistics systems, and offshore renewable energy projects under the Harit Sagar initiative.

According to Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, India's 2026 outlook represents a clear transformation point, with macroeconomic stability providing the foundation for broader, technology-driven growth that could prove faster, cleaner, and more structurally resilient.