Paytm Shares Decline 10% Amid Payment Infrastructure Fund Extension Concerns
One97 Communications shares fell 10% to ₹1,134 amid concerns over the Payment Infrastructure Development Fund scheme extension beyond December 2025, which contributes 20% to operating profit. Despite the decline, Investec initiated 'Buy' coverage with ₹1,550 target, projecting 23% revenue CAGR and margin expansion. Mutual funds reduced stake to 14.34% from 16.25% in Q3, marking first reduction since 2021 IPO.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
One 97 Communications , the parent company of digital payments platform Paytm, experienced significant selling pressure on Friday as shares tumbled 10% to hit a day's low of ₹1,134. This marked the fourth decline in the past five trading sessions, raising concerns among investors about the company's near-term prospects.
Payment Infrastructure Fund Concerns Drive Selloff
The primary catalyst behind the sharp decline appears to be market apprehensions surrounding the Payment Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF), a government scheme designed to incentivize digital payment infrastructure deployment. The scheme, currently extended until December 2025, lacks clarity on further extensions beyond that date.
| Key PIDF Impact Metrics: | Details |
|---|---|
| Contribution to Operating Profit: | Nearly 20% |
| Current Extension Period: | Until December 2025 |
| Extension Status: | No official communication |
| Potential Impact: | Affects digital payment companies |
According to analyst assessments, PIDF-linked incentives contribute approximately 20% to Paytm's operating profit. Any discontinuation of this scheme could materially impact companies providing digital payment and payment infrastructure services. However, these concerns remain speculative as the Reserve Bank of India has not issued any official clarification regarding the scheme's future.
Investec Initiates Bullish Coverage
Contrasting the market sentiment, brokerage firm Investec launched coverage on Paytm with a 'Buy' rating and an ambitious price target of ₹1,550 per share. This target suggests a potential upside of 23% from current trading levels.
| Investec's Financial Projections: | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Net Revenue CAGR (FY26-28): | 23% |
| EBITDA Margin by FY28: | 24% |
| Current EBITDA Margin (H1FY26): | 8% |
| Price Target: | ₹1,550 |
| Rating: | Buy |
Investec highlighted Paytm's robust technology infrastructure and embedded merchant relationships as key competitive advantages that provide sustainable pricing power and create high switching costs. The brokerage emphasized that with most merchant acquisition activities completed and a digital-first operational approach, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on strong operating leverage.
Institutional Investor Activity
The December quarter witnessed notable changes in Paytm's shareholding pattern, particularly among institutional investors. Domestic mutual funds reduced their stake for the first time since the company's stock market debut in November 2021, after consistently increasing exposure over three years.
| Shareholding Changes (Q3): | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Mutual Funds (Dec 2024): | 14.34% |
| Mutual Funds (Sep 2024): | 16.25% |
| Quarterly Change: | -1.91% |
| Retail Investor Trend: | Seventh consecutive quarter decline |
Retail shareholders continued their selling streak, with their holdings dropping for the seventh consecutive quarter to the lowest level since September 2023. This persistent retail exodus reflects ongoing concerns about the company's long-term prospects and regulatory challenges.
Market Performance and Outlook
At approximately 12:30 pm on Friday, Paytm shares were trading at ₹1,160, representing an 8% decline from the previous session's close. The stock's recent volatility underscores the market's sensitivity to regulatory developments and policy changes affecting the digital payments sector.
The contrasting views between market participants and institutional analysts highlight the complex investment landscape surrounding Paytm. While immediate concerns about PIDF extension create near-term headwinds, the company's fundamental business strengths and growth potential continue to attract positive analyst attention.
Historical Stock Returns for One 97 Communications
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.65% | -13.29% | -14.31% | +8.35% | +35.35% | -27.04% |


































