NALCO shares surged to a fresh 52-week high, extending a remarkable four-day rally that has captured investor attention amid a global aluminium price boom. The stock climbed as much as 3% to ₹357.50 on Wednesday, capping off a 14% gain over just four trading sessions.

Global Aluminium Prices Drive Market Sentiment

The rally has been underpinned by aluminium prices hitting their highest level in more than three years, with London Metal Exchange prices breaching the $3,000-per-tonne mark to trade at $3,082.00. This surge reflects tight supply conditions globally, as production constraints have weighed heavily on inventories.

Supply-side challenges have emerged from multiple fronts. China has implemented caps on smelting capacity, while European producers face production constraints due to elevated electricity costs. These factors have created a supply squeeze that has pushed prices to multi-year highs.

Demand prospects remain robust, supported by sustained requirements from the construction and renewable energy sectors. NALCO's managing director Brijendra Pratak Singh indicated that the global aluminium market is expected to move into a supply deficit in 2026 and 2027, with increasing demand from electric vehicle, construction, power, and data center sectors.

Strong Q2 Financial Performance

The recent price surge builds on NALCO's solid September-quarter earnings, which demonstrated the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

The significant margin expansion from 38.7% to 45% reflects stronger pricing power and improved cost discipline, highlighting management's operational efficiency during favorable market conditions.

Expansion Plans and Growth Outlook

NALCO's growth trajectory is supported by strategic capacity expansion initiatives. The company is implementing a timely ramp-up of its fifth stream alumina refinery, targeting a capacity addition of 1 million tonnes per annum by FY27. This expansion is expected to serve as a key growth driver despite some cost overruns.

The company has outlined broader capital expenditure plans worth ₹30,000.00 crore for:

• A 0.5 MTPA smelter facility
• A 1,080 MW captive power plant
• Accelerated spending expected from FY28

Technical Analysis and Market Position

NALCO's stock performance has been impressive across multiple timeframes. The shares delivered nearly 50% returns in 2025 and are already up 11% in 2026. From a technical perspective, the stock is trading above all eight key simple moving averages, from 5-day to 200-day periods, signaling bullish momentum across all timeframes.

However, technical indicators suggest some caution may be warranted. The Relative Strength Index stands at 85.5, indicating strongly overbought conditions that could lead to a potential pullback. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains firmly positive at 18.9, reinforcing the strength of the current upward trend.

National Aluminium Company Ltd ( NALCO ) shares surged as much as 7.00% to touch a fresh record high of ₹352.00, extending their rally for a fourth straight trading session. The aluminum major has demonstrated exceptional momentum, climbing 12.00% over the past four days as global commodity dynamics continue to favor metal producers.

Global Aluminum Market Breakthrough

The surge comes after aluminum prices in global markets rose 2.00% to their highest level in over three years. London Metal Exchange (LME) prices have breached the significant $3,000.00-per-tonne mark to trade at $3,082.00, creating highly favorable conditions for aluminum producers worldwide.

| Market Metrics: | Current Levels | Performance || | ---: | :--- | :--- | | NALCO Record High: | ₹352.00 | +7.00% intraday | | Four-Day Rally: | +12.00% | Fourth consecutive session | | LME Aluminum Price: | $3,082.00 per tonne | Highest in 3+ years | | Global Price Surge: | +2.00% | Breaking $3,000.00 barrier |

Supply Constraints Drive Price Rally

The aluminum price rally has been driven by tight supply conditions across major producing regions. A cap on smelting capacity in China and production constraints in Europe due to elevated electricity costs have significantly weighed on global inventories. These supply-side pressures have created a favorable pricing environment that directly benefits NALCO's operations.

According to Bloomberg reports, demand prospects remain strong, supported by sustained requirements from the construction and renewable energy sectors. This combination of constrained supply and robust demand has established tight market dynamics supporting higher aluminum prices.

Strong Q2 Financial Performance

NALCO's latest quarterly results demonstrate the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions:

The September-quarter results showcased improved operating efficiency and stronger pricing power, with net profit climbing to ₹1,430.00 crore from ₹1,046.00 crore in the same period last year.

Future Growth Outlook

NALCO Managing Director Brijendra Pratak Singh recently highlighted that the global aluminum market is expected to move into a supply deficit in 2026 and 2027 as demand continues to rise across multiple sectors. "The demands are increasing from the EV sector, construction sector, power sector, and now huge data centres are coming," Singh noted.

Axis Securities highlighted that NALCO's timely expansion and ramp-up of the 5th stream Alumina refinery will be a key growth driver, with capex spending expected to increase significantly from FY28.

Market Performance and Returns

At recent trading levels around ₹350.00, NALCO shares were trading 6.00% higher from the previous close. The stock has delivered exceptional returns of almost 50.00% in 2025, positioning it among the top performers in the metals sector and demonstrating the company's ability to benefit from favorable commodity cycles and operational improvements.