Motilal Oswal Initiates Coverage on Midwest with Buy Rating, ₹2,500 Bull Target
Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage on Midwest Gold with a Buy rating and target price of ₹2,000, with a bull case scenario targeting ₹2,500 representing 54% upside potential. The mining company, which listed in October at ₹1,065, has delivered 58% returns and dominates India's premium granite export market with over 64% share in Black Galaxy granite. The brokerage expects strong growth driven by diversification into quartz processing and heavy mineral sands, projecting revenue concentration to shift from 96-98% granite dependency to 50% by FY28.

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Midwest Gold shares surged 4% on Friday following Motilal Oswal's initiation of coverage with a 'Buy' rating and target price of ₹2,000.00. In a bull case scenario, the brokerage has set an ambitious target of ₹2,500.00 per share, indicating an upside potential of 54% from recent levels. The positive outlook is based on the company's dominant position in the black granite market and strategic diversification into high-growth segments.
Market Leadership in Granite Segment
Midwest has established itself as India's largest producer and exporter of premium Black Galaxy and Absolute Black granite varieties. The company operates a vertically-integrated supply chain with 20 mines and generated ₹630.00 crores in revenue during FY25, achieving a compound annual growth rate exceeding 21% over the past five years.
| Parameter: | Details |
|---|---|
| Black Galaxy Export Share: | Over 64% |
| Domestic Production Share: | Around 16% (FY25) |
| Annual Mining Capacity: | 1.38 million cubic meters |
| Distribution Network: | 17 countries across 5 continents |
| Revenue (FY25): | ₹630.00 crores |
Motilal Oswal expects granite volumes to scale up to ₹150,000.00 per cubic meter by FY28 through new mine and cluster-based expansions, ensuring steady earnings growth.
Strategic Diversification and Growth Projections
The brokerage highlights Midwest's expansion into quartz processing and heavy mineral sands as key growth drivers. The company possesses substantial quartz resources and has outlined ambitious production enhancement plans that will significantly diversify its revenue base.
| Business Segment: | Current/Target Capacity |
|---|---|
| Quartz Resources: | Over 23 million tonnes |
| Quartz Capacity (Current): | 300 ktpa |
| Quartz Capacity (FY27 Target): | 600 ktpa |
| Phase 2 Capex Requirement: | ₹130.00 crores |
| Sri Lanka Mining Focus: | Ilmenite, garnet, zircon |
Motilal Oswal expects these expansions to reduce granite's revenue concentration from 96-98% in FY25 to 50% by FY28, while overall revenue and EBITDA are projected to post 36% and 47% CAGR respectively over FY25-28.
Financial Outlook and Bull Case Scenario
The brokerage forecasts Midwest's revenue and EBIT to clock a 12% CAGR each over FY25-28 in the base case. However, the bull case scenario presents significantly higher growth potential with enhanced operational metrics.
| Financial Metric: | Base Case CAGR (FY25-28) | Bull Case CAGR (FY25-28) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth: | 12% | 40% |
| EBITDA Growth: | 12% | 56% |
| Adjusted PAT Growth: | 56% | 67% |
| Expected EBITDA Margin: | 34% | 38% |
The company's net debt stands at ₹220.00 crores, translating to a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.30x as of FY25. This ratio is expected to decline below 1.00x due to rising operating profits, with operating cash flow likely to exceed ₹200.00 crores annually by FY27-28.
Stock Performance and Market Position
Midwest shares listed on October 24 at a 9% premium over the issue price of ₹1,065.00 per share. The stock has delivered impressive returns of 58% from its issue price, reaching a post-listing high of ₹1,687.00. Trading at ₹1,654.40 with a 1.80% gain on Friday, the stock demonstrates strong market confidence in the company's growth strategy and operational capabilities.
Historical Stock Returns for Midwest Gold
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.00% | -13.08% | +19.84% | +300.87% | +2,938.64% | +41,299.49% |

































