Kotak Securities Initiates Buy Coverage On Groww With ₹190 Target Price
Kotak Securities initiates Buy coverage on Groww with ₹190.00 target price, citing the company's product-led growth engine and technology advantages. The brokerage projects 20% revenue CAGR over FY2026-28 with EBITDA margins expanding to 65% by FY2028, driven by wealth management expansion and higher-margin products like MTF and commodities.

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Kotak Securities has initiated coverage on Billionbrains Garage Ventures Ltd ( Groww ) with a Buy rating and a target price of ₹190.00, implying a valuation of around 35 times March 2028 estimated earnings. The brokerage's constructive medium-term outlook centers on Groww's ability to build scale through trust and technology while expanding monetization across multiple financial products.
Investment Thesis and Competitive Advantages
Kotak believes Groww's growth engine is structurally differentiated, driven by a durable product-led flywheel that enables the platform to acquire, engage and monetize users at significantly lower costs than peers. The brokerage highlights several key competitive advantages:
- Product-first DNA and organic customer acquisition engine
- Technology focus enabling faster scaling and effective monetization
- Expanding revenue streams reducing reliance on pure turnover-linked broking income
- Scalable in-house technology enhancing speed, reliability and cost efficiency
Financial Projections and Growth Trajectory
Kotak expects a distinctive earnings pattern over the coming years, with financial year 2026 projected as a year of broadly flat earnings growth, followed by sharp acceleration thereafter. The detailed earnings outlook includes:
| Parameter | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2026-28 Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth | ~35% | ~25% | - |
| Revenue CAGR | - | - | ~20% |
| EBITDA Margins | - | ~65% | Expanding |
Revenue Diversification Strategy
The platform's revenue mix continues to broaden beyond traditional broking services. Kotak notes that Groww has consistently gained market share across products while demonstrating pricing power and improved unit economics. Key revenue streams include:
- Broking services
- Margin trading facility (MTF)
- Commodities trading
- Wealth management
- Consumer credit
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Margin improvement is expected to be driven by scale benefits, declining cost intensity and higher-margin revenue streams. Marketing efficiency has shown significant improvement:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2025 | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing Costs (% of Revenue) | 21% | 12% | ~10% |
| EBITDA Margins | - | ~60% | ~65% |
Key Growth Drivers and Strategic Focus
The wealth management pivot is seen as a key medium-term driver, with successful execution critical to sustaining premium, platform-like valuation multiples. Kotak expects strong growth in underpenetrated products such as MTF and commodities, along with the addition of wealth revenues through both organic and inorganic initiatives.
The company's under-leveraged balance sheet and healthy return on equity of around 25% position it well for future growth. Strong internal accruals are expected to comfortably fund growth in MTF and on-balance sheet lending, keeping the business capital efficient.
Risk Factors
Kotak flags several risks to its investment thesis:
- Market cycles and changes in retail investor behavior
- Possibility of prolonged regulatory scrutiny extending to other broking areas
- Execution risks in scaling wealth management business
- Intense competition within the broking space
- Risk of mature users migrating toward more advanced trading platforms
Historical Stock Returns for Groww
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.50% | +2.94% | +6.90% | +21.65% | +21.65% | +21.65% |








































