As investors prepare for 2026, asset allocation strategies are taking shape amid shifting global macroeconomic conditions. Gurmeet Chadha, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Complete Circle Consultants, has provided a comprehensive outlook on various asset classes based on recent interactions with senior portfolio managers, investors, and promoters. His analysis addresses key opportunities and risk areas across Indian equities, global markets, precious metals, and bonds.

Indian Equities Show Constructive Setup

Chadha presents an optimistic view for Indian equities in 2026, citing structural improvements and market corrections as positive factors. He emphasizes that markets typically respond favorably to interest rate cuts and tax reforms, though with a time lag.

"Valuations have seen both price and time correction, making the setup for 2026 relatively constructive," Chadha noted. His outlook is supported by several key catalysts:

Precious Metals Require Cautious Approach

For precious metals, Chadha advocates a measured strategy, particularly regarding silver exposure. He recommends maintaining balanced allocation while avoiding excessive concentration in this volatile segment.

His specific guidance includes:

• Combined allocation: 5-10% in gold and silver
• Silver caution: "Be cautious, especially on silver. Don't go overboard"
• Risk management: Focus on balanced exposure rather than aggressive positioning

The recommendation reflects concerns about heightened volatility in the precious metals space, particularly in silver markets.

Global Equities and AI Trade Face Moderation

Chadha expects a more tempered outlook for global equities in 2026, with particular attention to the artificial intelligence sector. He anticipates that the AI trade, which experienced significant momentum in recent periods, may encounter profit-taking or moderation.

This perspective suggests investors should prepare for:

• Reduced momentum in AI-related investments
• Potential profit-taking activities
• More selective global equity opportunities

Long-Duration Bonds Present Opportunities

The bond market outlook appears favorable in Chadha's analysis, with long-duration bonds positioned for potential outperformance. He identifies structural triggers that could offset market volatility and support bond performance.

Chadha assigns high probability to India's inclusion in the global bond index, viewing this as a significant catalyst for the domestic bond market. The improved fiscal health position further supports his constructive view on long-duration bonds.

Strategic Implications for Investors

Chadha's comprehensive analysis provides investors with a framework for 2026 asset allocation decisions. His recommendations balance optimism in Indian equities and bonds with caution in precious metals and global equity sectors. The emphasis on structural triggers and policy developments suggests that investors should monitor regulatory and policy announcements closely while maintaining diversified exposure across asset classes.

Market veteran Gurmeet Chadha, Managing Partner and CIO of Complete Circle Consultants, has issued a stark warning about the growing threat of unverified news reports that are creating systemic risks in financial markets, particularly during derivatives expiry sessions.

Pattern of Misinformation During Market-Sensitive Periods

Chadha highlighted a concerning trend where misleading information surfaces strategically around weekly and monthly derivatives expiry days, amplifying market volatility. In a detailed post on X, he pointed to several recent instances of market-moving claims that lacked proper verification.

The market expert emphasized that these reports typically emerge from global social media handles, often citing unnamed or unverified sources, creating a pattern of disinformation that coincides with market-sensitive periods.

Immediate Market Impact on Capital Goods Sector

The most recent example of this phenomenon occurred when shares of Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and other capital goods companies plunged up to 14% following unconfirmed media reports. These reports suggested that the Ministry of Finance planned to scrap five-year-old restrictions on Chinese firms bidding for government contracts.

Reuters had reported this development citing two unnamed sources, claiming the move was part of efforts to revive commercial ties with China amid eased diplomatic and border tensions. However, the lack of official confirmation led to panic-driven trading and significant market disruption.

Proposed Solution for Market Stability

To address this growing concern, Chadha proposed a practical solution involving government intervention in information dissemination. He suggested establishing an official government social media handle dedicated to prompt communication and real-time fact-checking.

Key Benefits of Official Communication Channel:

• Real-time clarification of facts
• Improved market transparency
• Reduced scope for panic-driven trading
• Counter misleading information promptly
• Prevent disorderly market movements

Chadha emphasized that such a mechanism could help prevent the escalation of false information into systemic market risks, providing investors with reliable, verified information during critical trading periods.

Market Vulnerability During Expiry Sessions

The timing of these misinformation campaigns appears strategically aligned with derivatives expiry sessions, when markets are already experiencing heightened volatility. Chadha noted that this pattern suggests a deliberate attempt to exploit market vulnerabilities during these sensitive periods.

The market expert's concerns reflect broader issues about information integrity in modern financial markets, where social media-driven news can trigger significant capital movements before proper verification occurs. His call for official government communication channels represents a proactive approach to maintaining market stability and protecting investor interests from the growing threat of financial disinformation.