Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month price target on Reliance Industries to ₹1,835 per share, implying an upside of approximately 25% from current levels, exactly one week ahead of the company's Q3FY26 earnings announcement. The international brokerage has reiterated its Buy rating, arguing that near-term moderation in retail will be offset by improving refining fundamentals and steady momentum in telecom operations.

Revised Estimates Across Business Segments

In a note dated January 9, Goldman Sachs refreshed its estimates for Reliance Industries by marking assumptions to evolving trends across segments. The brokerage expects Q3 earnings growth in retail to moderate due to weak discretionary spending, base effects, and festive timing considerations. However, this moderation is likely to be partly offset by strong refining-led performance in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, keeping overall earnings largely unchanged despite segment-level adjustments.

Oil-to-Chemicals Business Drives Performance

Goldman Sachs analysts expect strong performance from the refining segment in Q3FY26. The brokerage projects the following metrics for the O2C business:

Refining cracks improved during the quarter amid permanent refinery closures, unplanned outages, and disruptions to Russian product exports, tightening global product markets. Lower Dubai-Brent spreads and easing Saudi crude premiums have improved the cost curve positioning for complex Asian refiners such as Reliance Industries. Goldman Sachs expects refining margins to remain supported into Q4 and through CY27, given structurally tight capacity and limited net additions globally.

Petrochemicals earnings are expected to soften sequentially due to weaker olefins spreads following lower oil prices. While Goldman remains bearish on broader petrochemicals margin recovery due to structural overcapacity, it expects Reliance Industries to continue outperforming peers owing to its cost advantage from ethane cracking economics.

Telecom Segment Shows Steady Growth

In the telecom segment, Goldman Sachs expects a stable quarter with healthy subscriber additions for Jio Infocomm:

For the full year FY26, Goldman forecasts revenue and EBITDA growth of 15% and 20% respectively for Jio Platforms, with non-connectivity businesses growing at a faster 30% clip and now accounting for around 12% of revenues. Over the medium term, Goldman expects Jio to deliver an 18% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-30, supported by continued gains in wireless and home broadband subscribers.

Retail Business Faces Near-term Challenges

The retail arm remains a near-term drag on performance. Goldman has lowered its Q3FY26 sales growth assumption for Reliance Retail to approximately 10% year-on-year from an earlier 12%, citing early festive season effects and lack of sharp recovery in discretionary demand. EBITDA growth is expected at around 6% year-on-year, with some margin pressure from investments in quick commerce and lower operating leverage.

JioStar Integration and Valuation

Reliance Industries has begun reporting JioStar-related data from early CY25, which Goldman now incorporates into its forecasts. The brokerage expects JioStar to deliver an 8% revenue CAGR and an 11% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-30. Goldman values JioStar using a DCF methodology, assuming a 10.50% WACC and a 4% terminal growth rate, yielding a DCF-implied valuation of $12.00 billion, translating into a value of ₹78.00 per share for Reliance Industries on a 100% ownership basis.

Consolidated Outlook

Overall, Goldman expects consolidated EBITDA to grow 6% sequentially and 11% year-on-year in Q3FY26 to approximately ₹48,700 crore. For FY26-28, the brokerage believes steady energy and telecom performance, along with low-teens retail growth, is sufficient to support mid-teens consolidated EBITDA growth.

Goldman Sachs has issued a 'Buy' rating on Nifty 50 heavyweight Reliance Industries Ltd, setting a price target of ₹1,835 per share. This target represents an upside potential of up to 25% from the stock's previous closing price, reflecting the brokerage's confidence in the company's refining business prospects.

Mixed Quarterly Outlook

The investment firm expects moderation in Reliance's retail earnings growth during the third quarter, attributing this to several factors including weak discretionary spending, base effects, and the timing of the festive season. However, Goldman Sachs anticipates that a strong, refining-led performance in the energy business will partly offset these retail headwinds.

Refining Business Fundamentals

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts by trimming near-term retail growth assumptions while raising refining estimates, resulting in overall earnings forecasts that remain largely unchanged. The brokerage emphasized that refining fundamentals continue to be supported by tight product markets through CY27.

The firm noted that crude differentials across alternative grades, including Middle Eastern barrels, are improving, which could help sustain strong refining margins. Additionally, Goldman Sachs flagged further upside risks to Reliance's refining margins if crude sourcing from Venezuela were to resume.

Venezuela Oil Sourcing Potential

Regarding Venezuelan oil access, a Reliance Industries spokesperson stated on January 9 that the company is awaiting clarity on access to Venezuelan oil for non-US buyers and will consider purchases in a compliant manner. This development could provide additional margin enhancement opportunities for the refining segment.

Telecom Growth Projections

In the telecommunications business, Goldman Sachs projects an EBITDA CAGR of 18% over the FY26 to FY30 period, indicating strong growth expectations for this segment.

Market Performance and Analyst Sentiment

Reliance Industries is scheduled to announce its third-quarter financial results on January 16, 2026. The stock ended Thursday's session 2.23% lower at ₹1,470.70, trading approximately 9% below its record high of ₹1,611.80.

Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with 35 of the 37 analysts tracking the stock maintaining 'Buy' recommendations, while only two analysts hold 'Sell' ratings. This broad analyst support underscores the market's confidence in the company's diversified business model and growth prospects across its key segments.