Amid improving domestic macro indicators and receding global headwinds, Geojit Financial Services has revised its Nifty50 base case target upwards to 29,150 by December 2026, implying a 12.00% year-on-year return. The brokerage believes the domestic market is positioned for a positive earnings cycle, supported by benign inflation, strong retail participation, and favourable monetary policy.

Nifty50 Target Scenarios

Geojit has outlined three distinct scenarios for the Nifty50 index by December 2026, each based on different valuation multiples and market conditions.

The base case target reflects expectations of improved earnings visibility and a supportive policy environment. The bullish scenario incorporates optimism around the earnings cycle, private capex revival, and sustained policy support, while the bear case provides a conservative outlook based on lower valuation multiples.

Key Market Drivers for CY2026

Several factors are expected to drive market performance in 2026, creating a foundation for sustained growth:

Monetary Policy Support:

• Reserve Bank of India cut repo rate by 125 basis points in CY2025 to 5.25%
• Potential for further rate cuts in 2026
• Improved financial liquidity following 100 basis points CRR cut

Credit and Participation Metrics:

• Non-food credit growth projected at 10.50% in FY27E
• Robust retail participation with ₹566.00 billion in SIP contributions during H1 FY26
• 179 million active SIP accounts demonstrating strong domestic investor base

Foreign Investment Outlook: While foreign institutional investors have not yet returned in large numbers, Geojit expects improved flows in 2026 due to the narrowing valuation premium of India compared to other emerging markets. Domestic consumption is anticipated to recover supported by tax and GST rationalisation alongside a supportive inflation environment.

Global Risk Assessment

Geojit anticipates moderation in global risks during 2026, including easing geopolitical tensions and trade concerns. The International Monetary Fund projects global growth to moderate to 3.20% in CY25 and 3.10% in CY26, down from 3.30% in CY24.

Commodity Outlook:

• Gold expected to consolidate as its role shifts from traditional hedge to risk-off asset
• Crude oil prices forecasted to stabilise due to higher OPEC+ output and US shale production
• Potential resolution of Russia-Ukraine conflict could further stabilise global supply chains

Recommended Portfolio Allocation Strategy

For calendar year 2026, Geojit has provided a strategic asset allocation framework designed to navigate evolving market dynamics:

The allocation strategy emphasises a higher weighting towards large-cap equities, reflecting the brokerage's confidence in established companies' ability to navigate the current market environment. The reduced allocation to gold and silver at 5.00% reflects expectations of moderation in global risk factors and a more favourable domestic investment climate.

This strategic framework positions investors to benefit from the anticipated earnings cycle recovery while maintaining appropriate diversification across asset classes and market capitalisation segments.

Geojit Financial Services has filed a revised intimation with BSE Limited regarding the reaffirmation and subsequent withdrawal of its credit rating by ICRA Limited for financial instruments worth Rs. 100.00 crore. The company submitted the regulatory filing on January 2, 2026, addressing a one-day delay in the original submission.

Regulatory Filing and Compliance

The revised intimation was submitted under Regulation 30 of the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations 2015, continuing from the company's initial filing dated December 29, 2025. Company Secretary Liju K Johnson signed the submission, which was digitally authenticated and filed with BSE Limited.

Rating Details and Action

ICRA's Rating Committee reaffirmed and withdrew the existing credit ratings on December 24, 2025, in accordance with the agency's withdrawal policy requirements. The action covered the company's diversified financial instruments portfolio.

Administrative Oversight Acknowledgment

The company acknowledged that the submission delay occurred due to an inadvertent administrative oversight, as referenced in SEBI Circular no. SEBI/HO/CFD/PoD2/CIR/P/0155 dated November 11, 2024. Geojit Financial Services expressed regret for the oversight and confirmed strengthening of internal controls to maintain adherence to regulatory timelines.

Rating Withdrawal Process

The withdrawal was executed following ICRA's established policy framework for rating discontinuation. ICRA Limited prepared a press release detailing the rationale behind the withdrawal, which was shared with the company for review. The rating agency indicated readiness to participate in rating any future borrowing programmes that Geojit Financial Services may undertake.

Communication Documentation

The official ICRA communication was signed by Anil Gupta, Senior Vice President, and digitally authenticated on December 24, 2025. The letter was addressed to Ms. Mini Nair, Chief Financial Officer, at the company's registered office in Kochi, Kerala. The company confirmed that this information is available on its website at www.geojit.com .