Bajaj Auto shares gained as much as 3% to hit a 52-week high of ₹9,783.50 on Tuesday, January 6, after the automaker's December sales came in largely in line with expectations. The stock surge followed strong export performance that continues to drive the company's growth momentum.

December Sales Performance

Total volumes rose 14.4% year-on-year, marginally below estimates of around 15%. The performance was characterized by a stark contrast between domestic and export markets, with domestic demand remaining a drag while exports continued their robust trajectory.

Two-wheeler sales grew 14% year-on-year to 3.10 lakh units, with domestic volumes up 3% and exports rising 24% to 1.78 lakh units. Three-wheeler sales increased 17% year-on-year to 59,456 units, showing strength across product categories.

Nine-Month Performance Trends

For the April to December period, the company's performance reflected similar patterns with exports compensating for domestic market challenges.

Emkay Global Upgrade and Target Revision

Following the December sales update, Emkay Global upgraded Bajaj Auto to 'Buy' from 'Add' and raised its price target to ₹11,100 per share from ₹9,500, implying an upside of around 17%. The brokerage said the upgrade was driven by EPS upgrades of around 4% for FY27 and 9% for FY28.

Emkay highlighted that Bajaj Auto offers an attractive risk-reward proposition at current levels, supported by several key factors:

• Strong export trends across Latin America and Asia
• Planned launch of refreshed Pulsar range in CY26
• Expected healthy 14% EPS CAGR over FY26 to FY28
• Currency depreciation-led tailwinds supporting margins

Strategic Business Developments

The brokerage noted that Bajaj Auto's overall domestic two-wheeler market share appears to have bottomed out, with early signs of recovery emerging. Export momentum remains robust, led by strong performance in Latin America and Asia markets.

In the electric vehicle segment, Bajaj Auto's electric three-wheeler portfolio has scaled up meaningfully, overtaking Mahindra and Mahindra to become the market leader. The company has already achieved EBITDA breakeven in this segment, demonstrating the viability of its electric mobility strategy.

Emkay also highlighted that a gradual turnaround in KTM operations could provide incremental upside over the medium term, adding another growth catalyst to the company's portfolio.

Bajaj Auto has addressed concerns about its Venezuelan operations, confirming that exports to the crisis-hit South American nation account for less than 1% of the company's total overseas shipments. The clarification comes amid political turmoil following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Export Performance and Market Presence

Rakesh Sharma, Executive Director at Bajaj Auto , acknowledged the company's presence in Venezuela while emphasizing its limited scale. "We do export to Venezuela. Pulsar and Boxer are very popular, but these exports are less than 1 per cent of our total exports," Sharma stated when responding to queries about potential operational implications.

The following table highlights Bajaj Auto's overall export performance:

Strong Overall Export Growth

Despite regional uncertainties, Bajaj Auto demonstrated robust export performance during the April-December period of FY26. The company's total exports reached 16,39,971 units, marking a significant 19% increase compared to 13,73,595 units in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Industry Response to Venezuelan Crisis

The political situation in Venezuela has prompted Indian automotive companies to assess their exposure to the market. TVS Motor Company, another major Indian automaker, confirmed it has no meaningful presence in Venezuela, indicating limited industry-wide exposure to the crisis-affected nation.

Market Diversification Strategy

Bajaj Auto's minimal dependence on the Venezuelan market reflects the company's diversified export strategy across multiple international markets. The strong overall export growth of 19% demonstrates the company's ability to maintain momentum despite regional challenges, with popular models like Pulsar and Boxer finding acceptance across various global markets.