UTI AMC's V. Srivatsa on why 2026 could be better than a tough 2025 for equity investors
UTI AMC's V. Srivatsa expects 2026 to be significantly better for Indian equity investors after a challenging 2025 that saw Nifty return around 10.00% but rank among the worst performing markets globally. Government stimulus measures including tax cuts and improved banking liquidity are expected to drive earnings recovery from Q1 2026. The fund manager favors IT, oil and gas, healthcare, infrastructure, and telecom sectors based on attractive valuations, while identifying US trade tariffs as the primary risk factor that could impact export-oriented industries.

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After one of the weakest years for Indian equities relative to global peers, 2025 left investors facing earnings downgrades, foreign institutional investor (FII) selling, and patchy demand. However, UTI AMC 's Executive Vice President & Fund Manager V. Srivatsa believes 2026 could mark a significant turnaround, with improving macroeconomic conditions setting the stage for a more constructive market environment.
Market Performance Analysis for 2025
The year 2025 proved challenging for Indian equity investors, with the Nifty delivering modest returns despite maintaining its streak of positive performance.
| Performance Metric: | Details |
|---|---|
| Nifty Returns (YTD Dec 16): | ~10.00% |
| Global Ranking: | Among worst performing markets |
| Consecutive Positive Years: | 10th year |
| Overall Upside: | 9.00-10.00% |
Srivatsa noted that this performance was driven by consistent earnings cuts throughout the year, combined with macro weakness in terms of demand and liquidity during the early part of the calendar year. The earnings downgrades, coupled with valuation triggers in other emerging markets, led to sustained FII selling pressure that further weighed on market sentiment.
Government Stimulus Measures and Recovery Outlook
Despite the challenging environment, the government implemented several measures to stimulate economic activity and improve market conditions:
- Income tax cuts to boost consumer spending
- GST rate reductions across various sectors
- Enhanced liquidity in the banking system to support credit growth
These policy interventions, implemented in the latter part of 2025, are expected to generate tangible benefits from the first quarter of 2026. Srivatsa expressed optimism about decent earnings growth for the next fiscal year, with the combination of improved macroeconomic fundamentals and earnings recovery boding well for Indian equity markets.
Segment-wise Market Dynamics
The fund manager addressed concerns about mid-cap and small-cap performance, acknowledging the pain experienced by investors in these segments. While earnings outlook for both categories appears to be on an improving trajectory, valuation considerations remain important.
| Market Segment: | Outlook | Valuation Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Large Caps: | Expected to lead recovery | Base level |
| Mid Caps: | Improving earnings visibility | 20.00-25.00% premium to small caps |
| Small Caps: | Recovery expected post mid-caps | Lower valuations |
Srivatsa expects large caps to spearhead the market recovery, given their relatively attractive valuations compared to mid and small-cap indices.
Sectoral Investment Strategy
Based on a relative value approach with emphasis on starting valuations, Srivatsa identified several sectors positioned favorably for the next 12 months:
- Information Technology: Well-priced for growth expectations
- Oil and Gas: Attractive valuation metrics
- Healthcare: Strong fundamentals and reasonable pricing
- Infrastructure: Benefiting from government focus
- Telecom: Positioned for sector recovery
These sectors are considered to offer compelling risk-reward profiles given their current valuations relative to growth prospects.
Key Risk Factors for 2026
While optimistic about the overall market trajectory, Srivatsa highlighted US trade tariffs as the primary risk factor for 2026. If no resolution emerges within the next six months, potential impacts include:
- Pressure on India's current account deficit
- Significant impact on export-oriented sectors
- Particular vulnerability for textiles, gems, and engineering sectors with high US export exposure
Despite the challenges faced in 2025, the achievement of Nifty's 10th consecutive year of positive returns demonstrates the resilience of Indian equity markets and provides confidence to retail investors, particularly first-time equity participants.
Historical Stock Returns for UTI AMC
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.42% | +2.09% | +1.04% | -12.10% | -11.79% | +105.51% |










































