UTI AMC's Ajay Tyagi Flags Elevated Market Valuations, Identifies Value in Select Sectors
UTI AMC's Ajay Tyagi warns of elevated market valuations with large caps trading 15-20% above historical averages despite consolidation since August 2024. He attributes this to earnings underperformance of 6-7% in FY25-FY26 against typical 12% growth, while markets priced in stronger performance. Despite FY27 consensus expecting 16% earnings growth, Tyagi expects range-bound markets due to limited valuation comfort, but identifies value opportunities in private banks, IT sector, and auto OEMs.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Indian equity markets face a valuation challenge that could keep them range-bound in the near term, according to UTI AMC 's Head of Equities, Ajay Tyagi. Despite strong domestic flows, policy support, and earnings recovery expectations, current market pricing reflects much of this optimism, creating limited room for significant re-rating.
Current Valuation Landscape
Tyagi highlighted that Indian markets have been trading at a premium to their long-term valuation averages since 2024. Even after nearly a year and a half of consolidation since the August 2024 peak, the valuation premium persists across market segments.
| Market Segment | Valuation Premium | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Large Caps | 15-20% above historical averages | Premium to norms |
| Mid & Small Caps | Clearly stretched | Beyond long-term norms |
| Overall Market | Elevated since 2024 | Above historical trends |
Earnings Growth Disconnect
The valuation concern stems from a significant disconnect between market expectations and actual earnings delivery. Tyagi pointed out that while India typically witnesses corporate earnings growth aligned with nominal GDP at around 12.00%, recent performance has fallen short of this benchmark.
| Period | Expected Growth | Actual Growth | Performance Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY25-FY26 | ~12% (trend) | 6-7% | Below expectations |
| FY27 (consensus) | 16% growth | Projected | Built into pricing |
This earnings underperformance occurred while markets had already priced in stronger growth, resulting in elevated valuations as prices remained high despite lagging fundamentals.
Forward Outlook and Policy Support
Looking ahead, consensus expectations are building in a sharp recovery for FY27 earnings, estimating nearly 16.00% growth over FY26. Policy changes including income tax relief and GST rationalization are expected to support consumption patterns. However, Tyagi cautioned that markets are not cheap even after accounting for these positive developments, as the forward earnings optimism is already factored into current pricing.
Sectoral Value Opportunities
Despite the overall valuation concerns, Tyagi identified specific sectors offering relatively better value propositions based on current pricing metrics.
Private Sector Banks
Private sector banks emerge as one of the few pockets trading at a discount to their long-term valuation averages. Despite demonstrating:
- Better underwriting quality than PSU peers
- Stronger balance sheet positions
- Superior operational metrics
These banks have underperformed the broader market rally, leading to comparatively reasonable pricing opportunities.
Information Technology Sector
The IT sector presents another attractive opportunity where valuations have cooled to near long-term averages after a challenging period. Tyagi noted that fears around AI disruption appear overplayed, creating scope for mean reversion as earnings stabilize and the sector adapts to technological changes.
Auto Original Equipment Manufacturers
Auto OEMs appear better positioned on valuation metrics despite their operational strengths. These companies have delivered:
- Stronger returns over time
- Healthier balance sheet positions
- Consistent operational performance
Yet they continue trading at lower multiples than ancillaries, creating a valuation gap that Tyagi finds difficult to justify based on fundamentals.
Investment Strategy Implications
Tyagi's assessment suggests that while Indian markets are not cheap and optimism is largely priced in, select pockets like private banks, IT, and auto OEMs offer relatively better value. He expects broad indices to consolidate further, making stock picking guided by realistic valuation expectations a key strategy for navigating the current market environment.
The combination of elevated overall market valuations and sector-specific opportunities creates a mixed landscape where selective investing based on individual company fundamentals and sector valuations becomes crucial for potential outperformance.
Historical Stock Returns for UTI AMC
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.70% | -5.19% | -5.83% | -22.59% | -8.82% | +94.49% |












































