Silver ETFs Plummet 19% from Peak as Global Prices Tumble
Silver Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have fallen nearly 19% from their October 15 peak due to a stronger dollar, increased commodity risk aversion, and US-China trade tensions. Global silver prices dropped 7.1% on Tuesday, affecting the Indian market where MCX silver fell by ₹327 during Muhurat trading, settling at ₹150,000 per kg. ETF premiums have disappeared, with some now trading at discounts. Despite the correction, analysts remain bullish long-term, with Motilal Oswal forecasting $75-77 per ounce by 2026-2027, and Bank of America predicting $65 per ounce due to structural supply shortfalls.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Silver Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have experienced a significant downturn, plunging nearly 19% from their October 15 peak. This sharp decline comes on the heels of a historic rally that saw domestic silver prices soar to unprecedented levels, even surpassing those witnessed during the infamous 1980 Hunt brothers incident.
Global Factors Driving the Decline
The silver market has been hit by a perfect storm of global factors:
- A stronger dollar
- Increased commodity risk aversion
- Trade tension concerns following remarks about delayed US-China meetings
These elements culminated in a 7.1% drop in global silver prices on Tuesday, sending shockwaves through the market.
Domestic Market Response
The ripple effects were felt strongly in the Indian market:
- During Muhurat trading, silver on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell by ₹327
- Prices settled at ₹1,50,000 per kg
ETF Market Dynamics
The recent market movements have had a significant impact on silver ETFs:
- Premiums over international prices have disappeared
- Some ETFs are now trading at discounts to global benchmarks
In response to these changes, Aditya Birla Sun Life Silver ETF Fund of Fund has announced it will resume subscriptions from October 23, after weeks of suspension.
Long-term Outlook Remains Bullish
Despite the current correction, analysts maintain an optimistic long-term view for silver:
| Analyst/Bank | Forecast | Target Year | Domestic Equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motilal Oswal | $75 per ounce | 2026 | ₹2.4 lakh per kg |
| Motilal Oswal | $77 per ounce | 2027 | ₹2.4 lakh per kg |
| Bank of America | $65 per ounce | Not specified | Not specified |
Bank of America's bullish outlook is based on structural supply shortfalls, even as they anticipate an 11% drop in demand next year.
Investor Implications
For investors, this volatility in the silver market presents both challenges and opportunities:
- Short-term traders may need to reassess their positions given the sharp decline
- Long-term investors might view this as a potential entry point, considering the bullish forecasts
- ETF investors should monitor the changing dynamics between fund prices and underlying asset values
As always, investors are advised to conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions in the volatile precious metals market.



























