Amit Goel, Co-founder & Chief Global Strategist at Pace360, has shared a mixed outlook for gold, predicting medium-term pressure despite maintaining a long-term bullish stance. The precious metal, currently trading at $3,335.00 per ounce, is expected to face downward pressure in the coming months and years.

Gold and Silver Price Projections

According to Goel's analysis, gold is likely to test support levels at $3,240.00-3,250.00 in the coming weeks. However, the more significant projection suggests a potential decline to $2,800.00 by March-April 2026. This represents a substantial drop from its current trading price.

Silver, often correlated with gold, is not immune to this predicted downturn. Goel forecasts that silver prices could slide to the $32.00-33.00 range over the same period.

Factors Influencing the Precious Metals Market

The primary factor contributing to the downward pressure on precious metals is the strengthening US Dollar. Goel points out that the Dollar Index, currently at 98.43, is expected to climb in both the near and medium term:

• Near-term projection: 99.50-100.00
• Early next year potential: 102.00-103.00

This appreciation of the US Dollar typically puts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver.

Broader Market Outlook

Goel's analysis extends beyond precious metals:

1. US Equities: Currently appear stretched and topish, suggesting potential for a correction.
2. Treasury Bonds: Expected to perform well, with long-term yields likely to decline.

Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators

The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's stance. Goel anticipates that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will lean slightly dovish, although he is not expected to be very committal in his statements.

Several key economic indicators due in early September are likely to influence the Fed's September meeting tone:

• Non-farm payrolls
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Annual payroll revisions (due September 9)

These data points will be crucial in shaping the near-term economic outlook and potentially influencing precious metal prices.

While the medium-term outlook for gold appears bearish, investors should note that Goel maintains a long-term bullish stance on the precious metal. This suggests that the projected decline might present buying opportunities for those with a long-term investment horizon.

Gold prices have retreated to their lowest point in nearly three weeks, primarily driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar. The precious metal's decline comes as investors eagerly await guidance on monetary policy from the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium.

Market Movements

Spot gold experienced a slight dip of 0.1%, settling at $3,312.79 per ounce. This marks its lowest level since August 1, highlighting the recent downward trend. Similarly, U.S. gold futures mirrored this movement, dropping 0.1% to $3,355.20.

The primary catalyst for gold's retreat appears to be the surging dollar index, which has climbed to its highest level in over a week. A stronger dollar typically makes gold more expensive for international buyers, potentially dampening demand.

Investor Focus

Market participants are keenly focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled for August 21-23. Of particular interest is the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which is expected to provide crucial insights into the central bank's monetary policy stance.

Adding to the anticipation, the release of the Fed's July meeting minutes is also on the horizon. These minutes are likely to offer additional clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Rate Cut Expectations

Current interest rate futures suggest that investors are pricing in two 25 basis point rate cuts for this year. The market appears to be betting on the first of these cuts to occur as early as September.

Other Precious Metals

While gold has faced downward pressure, other precious metals have shown mixed performance:

As the financial world turns its attention to the Jackson Hole symposium, the precious metals market, particularly gold, may continue to experience volatility. Investors will be closely monitoring Powell's speech and the Fed minutes for any signals that could influence future price movements in the gold market.