Elon Musk has become the world's first trillionaire following the successful initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX). This development has intensified speculation regarding the potential public listing of Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, indicates that market participants currently assign a low probability to a near-term IPO for the satellite internet venture.

Prediction Market Sentiment

Bettors on the Kalshi platform have wagered over $440,000 on the contract "When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?" The market sentiment reflects skepticism about an imminent listing. The prediction market assigns a 7% probability to a Starlink IPO occurring "Before Apr 1, 2027." The odds increase only marginally to 10% for the timeline extending to "Before Jun 30, 2027."

Revenue Projections and Analyst Views

Despite the uncertainty surrounding an IPO, financial projections for SpaceX remain aggressive. Musk stated in a post on X that he believes SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030. This forecast follows a reported revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, during which the company posted a $4.9 billion loss.

External estimates vary significantly from Musk's internal projection. New Street Research estimates that SpaceX could generate around $195 billion in revenue by 2030. Meanwhile, ARK Invest offers a more bullish outlook, suggesting revenue could eventually reach between $300 billion and $400 billion.

Speculation on Corporate Structure

Following the SpaceX listing, discussions have emerged regarding potential corporate restructuring. Investor Anthony Pompliano has called for a merger between Tesla and the newly listed SpaceX, describing it as "one company to bet on this generation's greatest entrepreneur." While a Tesla-SpaceX combination remains speculative, some industry observers have argued that the companies could eventually move closer together operationally.