Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners has maintained an Overweight rating on Alcoa while lowering the price target to $71 from $72. The revised target indicates a slightly reduced valuation expectation despite the continued positive stance on the stock.

The rating adjustment follows a review of Alcoa's current market position and future performance potential. Alcoa remains listed on the NYSE under the ticker AA.

The Overweight rating suggests that Wells Fargo continues to believe Alcoa's shares will outperform the broader market or industry average over the specified period.

Alcoa Corporation reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of $3.97 billion, a 24% sequential increase, while lowering its annual alumina production outlook due to operational challenges at its Pinjarra refinery in Australia. The company missed earnings expectations with adjusted EPS of $2.12, falling short of the Street estimate of $2.25, despite revenue beating the analyst consensus of $3.94 billion. Operational performance was mixed, with the Aluminum segment achieving record adjusted EBITDA, while the Alumina segment faced higher costs and lower production.

Q2 2026 Financial Highlights

Alcoa achieved record quarterly revenue driven by higher aluminum shipments and increased average realized prices. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items rose $306 million sequentially to $901 million, supported by stronger aluminum prices, higher shipments, and improved product mix. Special items for the quarter included a mark-to-market loss on Ma'aden shares of $123 million and losses on energy contracts of $45 million.

Segment Performance

In the Aluminum segment, revenue rose 31% sequentially to $3.3 billion, driven by higher shipments, stronger average realized prices, and improved value-added product premiums. Shipments increased by 113,000 metric tons sequentially to 726,000 metric tons. The segment delivered record adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion and an EBITDA margin of 32.3%, benefiting from higher LME prices, regional premiums, and solid demand in North America and Europe. Production increased by 30,000 metric tons sequentially, aided by the restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain and progress at the Alumar smelter in Brazil.

In the Alumina segment, revenue declined 3% sequentially to $637 million, primarily due to lower bauxite offtake, reduced supply agreement volumes, and operational challenges at the Pinjarra refinery. Adjusted EBITDA decreased $56 million sequentially, impacted by higher production costs, lower cost absorption, and increased fuel oil and diesel expenses. Production decreased 6% sequentially to 2.2 million metric tons, while third-party shipments remained flat at 1.6 million metric tons.

2026 Outlook

Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production projection to a range of 9.5–9.6 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.2–0.3 million metric tons from prior guidance, primarily due to instability and gas supply disruptions at the Pinjarra refinery. The 2026 alumina shipments projection was also lowered to 11.5–11.6 million metric tons. Total Aluminum segment production and shipments projections remain unchanged at 2.4–2.6 million metric tons and 2.6–2.8 million metric tons, respectively. For the third quarter of 2026, the company expects alumina segment performance to improve by approximately $10 million, while the aluminum segment is projected to remain broadly stable. Section 232 tariff costs on U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to decrease by approximately $10 million.