BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic revised price targets for American Express Co. and Capital One Financial Corp. ahead of the second-quarter earnings season starting in mid-July. The adjustments reflect updated forward expectations, shifting from anticipated rate cuts of 75 basis points (bps) to a potential rate hike of 25 bps, alongside concerns over lower credit reserve rates impacting 2026 earnings.

American Express Thesis

Caintic reiterated a Sell rating for American Express while raising the price target to $324 from the previous $285. The revision follows concerns that the company may report disappointing results, primarily due to its Commercial product refresh missing expectations. While fintechs and payments companies report strong growth, American Express's Commercial segment has shown subdued growth.

The planned refresh of its Center expense management solution by mid-2026 has sparked expectations for the Commercial business to return to mid-teens year-on-year lending growth and accelerating fee revenues. However, Caintic noted that the timeline for this refresh extends beyond six months, a significant delay in the competitive fintech sector where commercial fintechs are growing more than 70% year-on-year. He added that bullish expectations for 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 2027 and positive consumer trends driving Platinum card fees may be premature as these metrics are currently decelerating.

Capital One Financial Thesis

Capital One Financial maintained a Buy rating, with the price target increasing to $259 from $224. Expenses remain a key issue, and the company is unlikely to provide clarity during the second-quarter earnings call. Caintic stated that consensus estimates for a sequential decline of 7 bps in the credit reserve rate could prove too optimistic. By early 2027, significant synergies from the Discover and Brex acquisitions are expected to materialize, contributing to a lift of approximately 50% to annual EPS.

At the time of publication, shares of American Express had risen by 0.21% to $341.61, while Capital One Financial’s stock added 0.06% to reach $202.40.

Piper Sandler analyst Bill Carcache has initiated coverage on American Express with an Overweight rating and a price target of $396. The rating suggests a positive outlook on the company's stock performance relative to the broader market.

Analyst Details

Bill Carcache, an analyst at Piper Sandler, issued the rating and the accompanying price target. The Overweight designation indicates that the firm expects the stock to outperform the average return of the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 to 18 months.