TD Cowen flags delays at Bloom Energy data center projects
TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne maintained a Hold rating and $235 price target on Bloom Energy, citing delays at Oracle and AEP data center projects and supply chain risks related to scandium exports. The firm projects Q2 revenue of $837 million but adjusted EBITDA of $127 million, below consensus, while full-year estimates remain in line.

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Bloom Energy Corp shares declined on Monday after TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne highlighted meaningful delays at two of its largest data center projects and ongoing supply chain risks. The firm maintained a Hold rating and a price target of $235, indicating the stock is fully valued at current levels. The setbacks pose a potential drag on the company's 2027 and 2028 forecasts despite alignment with consensus estimates for the current year.
Project Delays and Supply Chain Risks
Osborne noted that Oracle’s 2.45 gigawatt fully islanded buildout lacks an approved air permit, while the natural gas pipeline supplying the site remains tied up in a dispute with federal regulators. Additionally, the deployment timeline for AEP’s project near Cheyenne, Wyoming, has slipped by two years in less than 90 days, and the Wyoming campus reportedly lost its developer in June.
The analyst also highlighted the ongoing fight over scandium, a material used as a stabilizer in every Bloom fuel cell’s ceramic electrolyte. China requires export licenses for scandium, raising concerns about Beijing's control over Bloom’s ability to scale manufacturing. Two short seller reports in early July intensified this debate, and Osborne called for clearer details from management on the supply chain.
Financial Forecasts and Positive Developments
TD Cowen expects second-quarter revenue of $837 million compared with a Street consensus of $833 million. However, the firm projects adjusted EBITDA of $127 million, approximately 15% below the Street’s estimate of $149 million. For the full year, the firm models revenue near $3.75 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $670 million, both roughly in line with consensus.
Osborne pointed to a June FERC ruling instructing grid operators to be more accommodating to on-site power generation, such as fuel cells, as a positive shift that could open more data center discussions. He also noted potential order wins in Texas and Spain as encouraging signs.
| Metric | TD Cowen Estimate | Street Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 Revenue | $837 million | $833 million |
| Q2 Adjusted EBITDA | $127 million | $149 million |
| Full-Year Revenue | $3.75 billion | In line |
| Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA | $670 million | In line |
How will the resolution of the federal regulatory dispute regarding the natural gas pipeline impact the timeline for Oracle's 2.45 GW project?
What specific steps is Bloom Energy taking to diversify its supply chain for scandium to mitigate geopolitical risks from China?
Could the two-year delay in AEP's Wyoming project lead to a reassessment of Bloom's 2027 and 2028 financial forecasts?

































