Meta shares drop 9% as analysts cut targets over AI spending skepticism
Meta Platforms Inc. saw its stock drop nearly 9% following mixed second-quarter results where revenue beat expectations but EPS missed due to significant one-time charges. Wall Street analysts responded with widespread price-target cuts, expressing skepticism about the timeline for returns on massive AI infrastructure spending. While core advertising metrics remained strong, concerns over margin compression and high capital expenditures dominated the narrative.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Meta Platforms Inc. shares declined nearly 9% to $533.17 on Thursday, reflecting widespread investor skepticism regarding the company’s massive artificial intelligence investments despite a second-quarter revenue beat. While revenue of $60.8 billion surpassed analyst estimates of $59.5 billion, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.18 missed consensus expectations near $7.19, dragged down by a $2.4 billion legal charge and $1.18 billion in severance costs. The selloff underscores growing concern that Meta’s aggressive capital expenditure guidance, now implying a midpoint of $137.5 billion for FY26, may not yield immediate proportional returns.
Analyst Reactions And Price Target Cuts
Wall Street analysts responded to the results with a wave of price-target reductions, even as most maintained their Buy ratings. Rosenblatt Securities’ Barton Crockett slashed his target to $883 from $1,015, noting that "skepticism is rampant" despite solid core advertising performance. He attributed part of the selloff to a "head-fake on cloud deals," referencing a reported but unmaterialized $10 billion compute deal with Anthropic. Crockett cut his valuation multiple to 15x EV/EBITDA from 17x.
Needham analysts Laura Martin and Dan Medina issued a critical note titled "META: A Strategy Only a CEO Can Love," maintaining a Hold rating. Martin argued that Meta is "fighting battles on too many fronts," spreading capital across custom chips, data centers, enterprise software, agents, model APIs, and smart glasses simultaneously. She highlighted that stock-based compensation reached $356,840 per employee, twice Alphabet Inc.’s rate, attributing this to low morale. With free cash flow at just $784 million, Martin questioned whether Meta has a terminal value.
| Analyst Firm | Rating | New Target | Previous Target | Key Concern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenblatt Securities | Buy | $883 | $1,015 | Skepticism on AI ROI; Cloud deal uncertainty |
| Guggenheim | Buy | $700 | $800 | Margin compression; Early monetization |
| Bank of America | Buy | $810 | $835 | Underappreciated capacity monetization |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $680 | $770 | High capex demands more proof |
| D.A. Davidson | Buy | $700 | $850 | High capex guide; Early agent traction |
| JPMorgan | Neutral | $640 | $725 | Lack of incremental API/agent clarity |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | $780 | $790 | Enterprise push potential |
Strategic Challenges And Monetization Hurdles
Guggenheim’s Michael Morris maintained a Buy rating but cut his target to $700, noting that operating margins compressed by 620 basis points due to AI talent costs. Morris identified Meta Business Agent as the company’s lone concrete monetization proof point, which begins paid monetization on August 1 in "very early stages." Similarly, Cantor Fitzgerald’s Deepak Mathivanan trimmed his target to $680, emphasizing that significant capex spend demands more evidence of return. However, he highlighted positive engagement metrics, noting the new Meta Generative Recommender drove an 8.3% lift in ad clicks and a 15.7% jump in conversions on Facebook.
JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth remained the most cautious, staying Neutral with a $640 target. Anmuth stated that Meta did not provide incremental learning on developer APIs or consumer/business agents. He projected 2027 capital expenditures to reach $243 billion, up 70% year over year, raising questions about long-term efficiency.
What The Numbers Show
The divergence between robust top-line growth and expanding cost structures defines the current investment thesis. While advertising demand held firm, with Advantage+ hitting a $75 billion annual run rate, the ability to sustain high capital outlays while maintaining profitability remains unproven. Free cash flow of $784 million signals tight liquidity amidst heavy investment. Investors are increasingly focused on whether Meta can translate its infrastructure spending into tangible revenue streams from cloud computing, messaging, or AI services before margin pressure intensifies further.
How will the August 1 launch of Meta Business Agent's paid monetization impact near-term revenue recognition and investor confidence in AI ROI?
What specific metrics or milestones must Meta achieve in Q3 to justify its projected $243 billion capital expenditure for 2027 and alleviate concerns over long-term efficiency?
Could the reported $10 billion Anthropic compute deal materialize in the next fiscal year, or does its absence signal a broader shift in Meta's cloud infrastructure strategy?

































